Friday, November 14, 2008

Market Watch

Back on October 4th I made a few recommendations of players to buy to make a capital gain over the coming weeks. The 'portfolio' saw initial success, but a month on it is time to look at the players and see how they've performed. I will then make some more predictions for the coming weeks.

Portfolio performance Here's the tips I made back on October 4th:Not too shabby at all (especially in today's economic climate). I would have removed the sell rating on Bent a couple of weeks ago too, and in fact he's on the shortlist to be a buy at the moment (as first noted by blog reader SilentJay). Of course, at you only realise half the price rise as profit, but still, its over a million made in a month that could make the difference between a Sol Campbell and a Gael Clichy, or a Joe Hart and a Pepe Reina.
Of the above tips I think Ronaldo has perhaps a small margin to rise, so I consider him a hold. I think Zaki ha reached his ceiling for now unless he goes on a goal streak so I'd call him a sell. At over 7m, Bosingwa is probably at his peak too. Nasri is the best buy of the tips and still has plenty of room to rise, perhaps as high as 8.0m. Berbatov is a hold and may rise 0.1m or so if he finds his scoring boots. Kompany and Traore have had their day and are both off the buy list.

New tips for November
Daniel Agger As long as Agger keeps his place under Skrtel returns, he should rise to around 6.4m based on Liverpool's fixture list. Carragher is 7.1m and Arbeloa is 6.4m (and rising) so Agger should really be valued at a similar price provided he's playing every week.

S.Nasri As demonstrated in my buy tips in October, I am really high on Nasri and think he could become a Robert Pires type scorer for the Gunners. Nasri is averaging 6.4 points per game when he's played over an hour, which is a great return for 7.6m. Arsenal's midfield will only get better as the depth returns (and is maybe strengthened in January) and Nasri will look to benefit.

L.Saha The oft-injured Frenchman has three in the last two and has featured in 8 straight games suggesting he is getting his fitness back. Everton have been poor so far but should improve with only Chelsea to play from the big four. If fit, Saha will almost definately play and looks to be great value in that tricky 6m - 8m striker range.

L.Modric Spurs have been a new side under Redknapp and Modric appears to the man best placed to capitalise. Two assists and three bonus points in the last three have given Modric a decent return, though only a handful of players have transferred him in (now owned by 6%). Over the next 12 weeks Spurs only play United from the big four, and have games against the likes of Blackburn, West Brom and Stoke to feast upon.

D.Bent As with Modric, Bent is a new player under Redknapp having netted 5 in the last 5. So long as he stays in the first eleven, the sky is the limit for the ex-Pure Juice early season flop. The emergence of Pavlyuchenko and Campbell is a situation worth monitoring though.

D.Kuyt The Dutchman has been a revelation this season, looking more like the player Liverpool thought they were getting from Feyenoord (where he scored 71 in 101). However, with the return of Torres and Keane finding his feet, Kuyt's playing time is bound to shrink and this could see player's dumping him for the likes of Young, Barry or Wright-Phillips. I don't think his price will plummit, though I can see it losing 0.2m or so over the coming weeks.

N.Anelka As with Kuyt, Anelka has been in great form though his playing time is also in jeopardy because of the return of a teammate. Drogba scored on his return from injury midweek (though could now be suspended for throwing a coin at the Burnley fans). When Drogba is back and fully fit, you have to imagine he play will play most games, which will leave Anelka out in the cold, especially in away games where it is highly unlikely that Scolari will go with two frontmen. Anelka is a hold for now but I can see his price falling below 9.5m by Christmas.

S.Ireland No one would have predicted that of all the players to perform for City, it would be a home grown player that scored the best (well one point less than Robinho). However, the points have dried up of late and Ireland hasn't scored any extras for 4 weeks despite playing Stoke, Boro, Bolton and Spurs. Ireland is held by a massive 31% of all players and has risen 0.9m since the game opened. This gives him a long way to fall and with back to back games against Arsenal and United on the horizon after a tricky trip to Hull this week, we could see the fall start to happen sooner rather than later.


Silent Jay said...

I have no arguments for once.
The end.

(Although I'd maybe include Belhadj as a "buy" candidate.)

Chris Glover said...

Not a great start - goal for Kuyt and he's playing well having also drilled one against the bar.

Amit said...

Kuyt is playing consistently well over the weeks and has netted one more goal. Anelka scored two against the baggies!