Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Bonus Point Analysis

I thought it might be useful to do a bit of analysis on how bonus points are awarded with a hope of getting a higher return on these valuable extras available each week.

First then, let's look at the facts so far, through 7 weeks of the new season:
  • 92% of bonus points are awarded to players from the winning side,
  • 51% of bonus points are awarded to players who score a goal during the week,
  • The top 5 strikers account for 36% of all points awarded to forwards. The top 5 midfielders account for just 13% of midfield points,
  • 47% of all bonus points awarded to midfielders have been given to players who cost 6m or less. This figure is only 24% for strikers,
  • Goalkeepers account for just 4% of bonus points awarded and Ben Foster is the only 'keeper to score any points (2) from the big four sides,
  • 32% of all defenders' bonus points have been given to a defender that scored that day,
  • The 'big five' teams (including City) account for 38% of all bonus points awarded; including 44% of all forward points and 41% of midfield points.
  • British and Irish players accounted for 58% of all bonus points awarded.
In some ways these stats just confirm what we thought we knew: players from the big four or five teams score more points. No surprise there. They have the most money and the best players so no wonder they get rewarded with the points each week. However, I think the key point is that if you're picking players from a team that will lose more often than not you are effectively limiting yourself to scoring points in one less category than other managers.

This really brings into question the 'big fish small pond' strategy I have championed in the past, as while players like Murphy (3), Lawrence (0), Hunt (0), Malbranque (0) and Jarvis (0) may well be the driving force behind their teams play, they are not being rewarded in the bonus point category. Now while there are exceptions to be found, such as Cattermole (6) and Dunn (7), it seems that these two are very much the exception rather than the rule.

I have mentioned previously that bonus points awarded to forwards are less deviated than those given to midfielders, and this trend is continuing through week 7. No less than 51 midfielders have been awarded bonus points, while just 29 strikers have been given the weekly nod from the pundits. Furthermore, the top 5 strikers account for a staggering 36% of all forward points, while the top 5 midfielders have scored just 13% of the midfield total. When reading this alongside the fact that 51% of all points are awarded to players that score, it looks to be increasingly likely that the likes of Rooney and Drogba will lead the league in bonus points this year ahead of previous champions Lampard and Gerrard.

The final point about 58% of all points going to British and Irish players confirms something that I have considered true for some time; that the pundits favour the domestic players. This won't stop Drogba getting the points each week but in a head to head contest between, say, Ashley Young and El-Hadj Diouf the points might go to the Englishman based on some underlying bias. I wouldn't let this point overly concern me when picking my team as alot of the best players are foreign and you'd be crazy to limit yourself based on nationality. However, if you are deciding between two closely ranked players such as Ashley Cole and Bosingwa or Milner and Denilson, it might be worth a thought.

As always I look forward to hearing your thoughts so please post below or tweet any comments.


Jay said...

How do you feel about Cudicini? He got his first clean sheet last week and seems like a good value at 4.5. Tottenham have some good fixtures in the coming weeks as well. Thoughts?

dhs_media_ssharp said...

Alright chris, what's your opinion on Shaun wright phillips? Iv had him in my team for 2 weeks now and he's scored nothing more then 60+ minutes on the pitch.

As you know he's 8.1m, do you think it's worth keeping him in for a few more weeks and see how he does, or sell him and invest the money elsewhere?

Chris Glover said...

Jay - I think Cudicini is great value and I have him pencilled in to replace Foster once van der sar is back. I am still a bit concerned about the presence of Gomes but he was benched this week so I'm happy for now that Cudicini will start.

dhs - having watched monday's game with West Ham, I too am concerned about SWP's form. He wasnt involved in the play very much and I'm considering ditching him too. Lennon is the natural replacement but I'm also considering saving a little bit of cash and upgrading my defense a bit.

Chris said...

Hey Chris, what do you think of my wildcard team?

O'Shea Song Distin Richards
Fabregas Milner Lennon
Adebayor RVP Drogba

Subs: Sorensen Bikey Jarvis Elliot

Chris Glover said...

Chris - absolutely love it. Possibly the best three value strikers around as well as Cesc and other top midfielders. I literally cant think of anyway to improve it.
Personally I like Huddlstone and cattermole more than Elliot but he's outscored them both so far so no complaints.
Your two keepers' schedules mesh well allowing you to play the fixtures though they both a tough stretch from week 19 - 24 so you might need a change down the road.

Song is a great addition and I just mentioned him in my latest weekly preview - I like him ALOT.

Excellent job and thanks for posting.

Anonymous said...

A classic trend with bonus points is when a defender scores the winner in a 1-0 or 2-0 win. Guaranteed three bonus points, just look at John O'Shea last week and countless others before. Nice site btw, care to swap links?