Thursday, December 3, 2009

Gameweek 15 Preview

Gameweek 15 Fixtures
Portsmouth v Burnley
Arsenal v Stoke City

Aston Villa v Hull City

Blackburn v Liverpool

West Ham v Man Utd

Wigan v Birmingham

Wolves v Bolton

Man City v Chelsea

Fulham v Sunderland

Everton v Tottenham

In a week where many focus their attention on tomorrow's world cup draw, there are some excellent looking fantasy games that should see some big points after a couple of up and down weeks for many of us. Villa and United each provide plenty of fantasy options and face opponents leaking goals a plenty this season (2.57 GPG and 2.14 GPG respectively). Three excellent defensive opportunities arise this week, with three teams given predicted to concede less than 0.5 GPG (Villa, Fulham and Arsenal).

After a flurry of big name injuries over the past month, the situation is starting to improve and we may even get Torres back this week. Of course as the fantasy Gods giveth they also taketh away with Carlton Cole out for 'several weeks' and Dunn's status unkown which are both blows given their good form for a budget price. The 5-yellow suspensions are also starting to kick in, with Alex Song, Kevin Davies, Johnny Heitinga, Marouane Fellaini and Younes Kaboul all out for this week.

Clean Sheet Rankings (Predicted goals conceded in parenthesis)
  1. Aston Villa (0.41)
  2. Fulham (0.41)
  3. Arsenal (0.45)*
  4. Wigan (0.86)
  5. Birmingham (0.96)*
  6. Blackburn (0.96)
  7. Bolton (0.96)
  8. Man United (1.23)*
  9. Portsmouth (1.31)
  10. Wolves (1.40)
  11. Tottenham (1.48)
  12. Chelsea (1.56)
  13. Sunderland (1.65)
  14. Liverpool (1.80)
  15. Everton (1.97)
  16. Man City (2.30)
  17. Stoke (2.55)
  18. Burnley (2.73)
  19. West Ham (2.87)
  20. Hull (3.20)
* Despite not having the best matchups this week, if you want to replace an injured player (such as Distin) or one from a team with bad matchups (such as Shawcross) then I like the three asterisked sides for the next 5 weeks or so. If you want a one week replacement then go with the above list.

It doesn't get much better than Villa and Fulham this week as two good defensive sides (6 goals conceded in 7 home games) face opponents who are really struggling on the road (5 goals in 7 road games each). Hull are obviously improving and Darren Bent is always a threat but you have to feel comfortable starting players from either of these sides this week. Arsenal have by far the best matchup of the premium teams and have a nice little run of fixtures excluding the week 16 trip to Anfield so might be worth a thought. I'm still high on the United defense despite the tough fixture this week and I still like them as my favourite premium side for the next 8 weeks.

Captain Rankings
  1. Didier Drogba
  2. Wayne Rooney
  3. Cesc Fabregas
  4. Jermaine Defoe
  5. Frank Lampard
  6. Aaron Lennon
  7. Andrei Arshavin
  8. Gabriel Agbonlahor
  9. Nicholas Anelka
  10. Ashley Young
I'm not backing against Drogba right now, no matter who the opponent is, and while City have scored goals at home they have also conceded 9 in 6 at Eastlands. United have the pick of the matchups for the big 4 sides so Rooney looks good again this week, while Villa's top matchup gives Young and Agbonlahor a chance to shine this week. Though the risk is higher with this pair, they have as high of a ceiling as anyone this week and are worth considering if you are looking to differentiate.

Yellow Card Watch
Before making any transfers this week, consider the following list of players who are just one card away from a 1 game suspension:
  • Phil Bardsley
  • Stephen Carr
  • Jamie Carragher
  • Didier Drogba
  • David Dunn
  • Julien Faubert
  • Ricardo Fuller
  • Johnny Heitinga
  • Jermaine Jenas
  • Aaron Mokoena
  • Fabrice Muamba
  • Scott Parker
  • Kieran Richardson
  • J'Lloyd Samuel
  • Ryan Shawcross
  • Martin Skrtel
  • Hendry Thomas
  • Nemanja Vidic
  • Glenn Whelan
Why not post your transfer and lineup issues below, or even tweet them @plfantasy


auburn.tigers2011 said...

Chris, Im trying to bring in A Cole next week but I need to free up some cash. Most of my cash is in strikers as I have Rooney, Drogba, and Adebayor. In order to free up some cash, what do you think of dropping Adebayor for Bent?

NotoriousDre said...

nice write up Chris...

Im going with Rooney this week...but i have a sneaky feeling Cesc may do something special!

@ Auburn, u can get Ivanovic for much less.

Besides Cole will have his hands full with SWP...cant see him pushing as far up as he is used to...

Andrew said...

I can't catch a break! I had 3 players go out injured before the 60 minute mark last week. On top of that, I changed my captain from Rooney to Adebayor at the last minute. Bad week for me.

This week I decided to bring in Rodallega and Taylor for C. Cole and Murphy.

This week my team is:
FABREGAS elliot HUNT taylor

GIVEN dunn BIKEY shawcross

I'm definitely unhappy with my squad, but its in the middle of transition.

My not-so-crazy captain ranks:
1. Defoe
2. Rooney
3. Milner
4. Drogba
5. Taylor

If you read the comments of this blog, you should know by now that I usually make some far-fetched captain picks. Not this week, the top 4 are all on everyone's radar. I decided to stick Matty Taylor in there simply because I think he's going to have a huge December. With only 3% of people owning him, I think he's going to be a huge differential for those of us that do. Bolton play Wolves this week, which should result in at least 4 goals between the two.

@Auburn.tigers I'm bringing in A Cole next week too. I just dropped a week or two back as I have a feeling his form will drop in the cold, though Kenwyne Jones should be back this week, which will help out Sunderland's attack. I would definitely take Defoe over Bent if you have the cash. I'm also big on Steven Fletcher going forward and expect him to score a goal or two this month since Burnley have great fixtures.

The Gaffer said...

Chris, I've got Hart and Sorenson, who should I start?

Plus captain picks? Fabregas or Drogba?

Chris Glover said...

Auburn - I would stick with your big three for now, though be mindful that Ade and Drogba will depart for the African Nations.
I think Dre could be right about Ivanovic as Bosingwa has been ruled out until the new year but the concern is that Belletti and Ferreira will steal minutes so he isn't a slam dunk to play every week. With a tough matchup this week Cole isn't a great play so if you can make a transfer to free up cash this week you can bring in Cole next week. Why not post your midfield below and we can make suggestions on potential savings.

Dre - hope you're right about Cesc, he needs to do something this week to justify my hype.

Andrew - first off, I love the double sub. I'm really high on Rodallega and Taylor looks well placed to capitalise on Bolton's good fixtures.

Gaffer - It has to be Hart this week with Sorensen going to the Emirates. The captaincy is a tough choice I myself have to make. Chelse'as fixture is better on paper in terms of scoring goals but Arsenal are irresistable at home. I'll stick with Drogba but I could really toss a coin on this one.

As always, thanks for the posts guys.

auburn.tigers2011 said...

Chris, my current midfield is Fabregas, Dunn, Dempsey, Hunt, and Fahey.

Any suggestions as to how I would free up cash if I keep my big 3 strikers? Im thinking transferring Dempsey in the near future will be the best bet because Fulham's schedule for week 17 and on isn't good. But who would I transfer for?

Chris Glover said...

Auburn - I like the idea of dumping Dempsey despute his impressive form due to his bye in week 17 followed by a run of tough fixtures. Poissble replacements and how much cash they save you (assuming you haven't yet made a profit on Dempsey):

KP Boateng - 1.5m saved. Good fixtures, improving side and penalty duties. Alot to like.

Chris Eagles - 1.6m saved. In good form with a great run of upcoming fixtures. Getting more minutes each week suggesting his reliability will improve.

N'Zogbia - 1.1m saved. Takes most set pieces. 5 bonus points in the last 5 weeks.

O'Hara - 1.9m saved. I don't like O'Hara as much as Boateng but he's great value and should play every week.

Junior Stanislas - 1.6m saved. Not guaranteed to play just yet but he has 4 assists and a goal in his last 3 games.

Hope that gives you a couple of ideas to think over.

norab said...

Hi Fellas,

I'm captaining Drogs this week. I just like the feel of him against Man City's D. City have been giving up lot of home goals to far less talented players. Plus that free kick last week was just so sweet. I also think the kooks in my mini league will all be drooling over Cesc. For me I want him to prove he can get some momentum going without RVP before I get back on his captaincy bandwagon. Drogba to run rampant one time!


auburn.tigers2011 said...

Great suggestions Chris. Thanks for the help!

Mmmarek83 said...

to chris. If there is time to give Your answer. Hart or Fulop. I think I bet on Hart. Thanks

Chris Glover said...

Mmmarek - totally agree - go with Hart