Thursday, November 11, 2010

Gameweek 13 Rankings

To give everyone a head start on transfers and team selections I have posted the weekly statistical rankings below and I will add some random comments and thoughts later tonight. The stats are now based purely on this year's results given that I think we now have a sufficiently large sample size for it to be reliable.

Clean Sheet Rankings
  1. Chelsea
  2. Aston Villa
  3. Stoke
  4. Tottenham
  5. Arsenal
  6. Man City
  7. Newcastle
  8. Everton
  9. Blackburn
  10. Wolves
  11. Bolton
  12. Man Utd
  13. West Brom
  14. Liverpool
  15. Birmingham
  16. West Ham
  17. Blackpool
  18. Wigan
  19. Fulham
  20. Sunderland
Captain rankings: Team goals
  1. Chelsea (3.62)
  2. Newcastle (2.24)
  3. West Brom (2.19)
  4. West Ham (2.04)
  5. Blackpool (2.01)
  6. Man City (1.79)
  7. Stoke (1.73)
  8. Wigan (1.37)
  9. Aston Villa (1.36)
  10. Wolves (1.34)
  11. Bolton (1.19)
  12. Tottenham (1.19)
  13. Arsenal (1.02)
  14. Fulham (0.96)
  15. Everton (0.85)
  16. Birmingham (0.85)
  17. Blackburn (0.75)
  18. Liverpool (0.68)
  19. Man Utd (0.58)
  20. Sunderland (0.00)


Andrew said...

I want to bring in A. Cole this week and have two free transfers. I am going to transfer out Fabregas and so need to replace him too.

I have 9.1 to spend, and already have Nani. I don't like Villa or Everton's fixtures and with Defoe coming back, I think he'll get spot kick duties so that decreases VDV's value. I'm looking at Parker, Jarvis, or Nolan and upgrading another defender next week too (probably Givet to Vidic).

Chris Glover said...

You have 9.1m to spend on a midfielder after ditching Fab? I still like Cahill despite Everton's tough fixture list but I agree it's probably 3 weeks too late to pick him up now. Same obviously goes for Arteta.

A sleeper pick might be Silva depending on how risky you want to be. From the games I have seen (I havent watched the derby yet) he has been City's most dangerous player not called Tevez and the points are starting to slowly come (26 in the last 5). City rank 8th over the next 6 games and 7th over the next 12 in terms of predicted goals scored.

I would love to recommend another Arsenal player given their good fixture list but I have no idea who will play other than Fabregas. Not even Arshavin is guaranteed minutes. If you liked Arsenal you could go cheap in midfield to replace Fab then bring in RvP but I'd say this is also a risky way to go.

On a somewhat side note, Blackpool's fixtures are awesome and they rank 2nd (yes second!) in predicted goals over the next 6 weeks. You could therefore think about Chaz Adam to sit in midfield which should free up sufficient cash to get both Cashley at the back as well as another premium defender or striker upgrade.

Of the three guys you mentioned Parker has terrible fixtures (19th ranked), Jarvis' aren't much better (15th) and Nolan's are god (5th). That said, if you plan on only playing him occasionally you can cherry pick the games you want.

I was very high on Nolan but Hughton appears to have settled on a 4-4-2 now which hurts Nolan's value as he was initially playing off a lone forward. At Bolton he was much more effective in the 4-5-1 and a continuation with the 442 will lead me to look elsewhere. I like Adam more than all three of them, though Nolan is the clear favourite of the three for me.

Chris Glover said...

Ps. I still have faith in Fabregas despite his troubles. My concern is that he will take too long to get going. His last 3 games (WH,New,@WW) don't really get much better and yet he only delivered 11 points. The fixtures get much harder and so he'll have to step it up to deliver value for money. I am awaiting the return of RvP to spark this team into life. If that doesnt happen then Fab will be gone for sure.

Ben said...

Hi Chris,

I'm generally happy with my team at the moment, but I'm now worried about Nasri and his high chance of rotation. I was considering swapping him for Tim Cahill, which would mean ditching Boateng for a <4.9m defender. But I saw your comment about it being three weeks too late to get Cahill.

So do you think I'm right to want to trade Nasri? And if so would you trade up and sacrifice Boateng, or trade down to say Brunt or even Zogbia and use the spare cash elsewhere?

Cech Gilks
Cole Boateng Simpson Elmohamady Coleman
Adam Malouda Barton Nani Nasri
Tevez Berbatov Carroll
(0.0 in the bank)

Andrew said...

I suppose I should have listed what the rest of my team was with my midfielder question.

Foster, Hahnemann
Givet, Tamas, Faye, Toure, Coleman
Cesc, Etherington, Adam, Nani, Dempsey
Caroll, Tevez, Drogba

I was considering Silva as an option. Wolves fixtures look too good for them not to pick up some points. I'm certainly not picking another Arsenal player, I don't like their fixtures.

Where does WBA fit on your upcoming fixtures ranking? Brunt is still an option for me.

Kal said...

Hey Chris,

I have my own spreadsheet and calculations, i was just wondering how you calculate your values...?

seems to be some kind of multiplication given that you've given sunderland the 0.00 .

I multiply a teams GPG against their opponents CPG to give me a rough idea of who has the best fixtures. However, these figures dont correspond to actual goals a team might score (i.e. man city wont score 5 goals as shown below!)...its just a list of comparable values.

I'm still working off a hybrid of both this season and last seasond...
but for comparison sake, using only this seasons games i get the following for week 13:

1: mancity 5
2: chelsea 4.7261
3: newcastle 2.925
4: westBrom 2.8462
5: westHam 2.6793
6: blackpool 2.6169
7: stoke 2.25
8: wigan 1.775
9: bolton 1.7689
10: wolves 1.755
11: tottenham 1.5561
12: arsenal 1.5
13: fulham 1.245
14: aston-villa 1.1039
15: birmingham 1.1039
16: everton 1.1039
17: blackburn 0.9711
18: liverpool 0.8911
19: manutd 0.665
20: sunderland 0

rankings are almost identical, but the values however are a different story! :)

You sometimes mention adjustments to scores for key injuries, promoted teams, etc..? how radically do these change your results?

Always interested in other peoples approaches.

Chris Glover said...

Ben - I like Nasri but I too am worried about the rotation risk. He has been deployed on the left wing of the front 3 sometimes this year but RvP's return makes this position all but unavailable. While I said that the Cahill transfer might be 3 weeks too late I still like him, but Im worried about his price tag given Everton's fixtures.

Although I am concerned a bit about the nature of his goals (mostly from 3 yards) I think Van der Vaart would be a nice option. As a cheaper option, Etherington has decent fixtures and could free up some cash to use elsewhere.

I agree that Nasri should probably be on your chopping block.

Chris Glover said...

Andrew - in the next 6 games Wolves rank 9th and WB 11th based on predicted goals scored. This makes Jarvis and Brunt viable, if unspectacular, options.

Fab>Silva would allow you to bring in a Chelsea defender for pretty much any of your back line. Fab > someone like Brunt would let you get an all star front line AND an upgrade at the back. While this would probably give you better value for your cash, at some point you need to actually score big points and I think Fabregas/Malouda/Nani etc give you the best chance to do this. I still like Cesc (see my recent post) but if you tire of his poor form then I think Malouda still holds alot of value.

Chris Glover said...

Kal - always interesting to see other people's rankings. I think our calcs are pretty similar. I look at the average goals conceded by a team at home/away, the average goals scored by the opposition at home/away to get a predicted score. I then adjust the number based on the fixtures played to date compared with the league average.

As for smaller factors like injuries and form, I just tweak the calcs based on the recent game averages so that the predictions start to match the actuals.

I am a bit stuck whether to use hybrid (prior year and current year) or just this year's data and I plan on doing an analysis this weekend to see which one have been closer to the actuals (rock 'n' roll plans I know).

I want to get the full data up on the site but I am having trouble using tables with blogspot and I dont have a decent program to make a site from scratch. Perhaps that will be a project for Christmas.

Thanks for the input. Any suggestions on how to make better predictions will be welcomed.

Karan said...

Hey Chris,

Firstly, really enjoying your blog. I've been referring to it a lot lately and feel like its been helping. Have had a couple of good weeks now but still 50 behind my friend who I have a bet with.

Here's my team -

Krul Foster
Alex Coleman Clichy Boateng Salcido
Arshavin Arteta Nani Adam Ben Arfa
Torres Chamakh Dembele

Firstly, what do you think? The transfers out I plan to make in the next few weeks are Ben Arfa, Salcido, Arshavin, Chamakh and Foster. Arshavin is so unlucky - never seen anyone hit the post as much.

Where are your next 6 games rankings, I cant find them.

From my own analysis, I like Liverpools clean sheets over next 8-10 games and plan to bring in Konchesky/ Skrtel for Salcido.

Rest I'm not sure - thinking of VDV for Arshavin but dont know about the Defoe impact. Other option is Silva.

Maybe Van Persie up front in a couple of weeks? And Fabianski for Foster. And then thinking between Brunt, Zog or Gamst.

Would love your advise and also which transfer to make first. I think it'll either be Arshavin or Ben Arfa, leave Salcido for Konchesky next week after Liverpool play Stoke away.

Thanks a ton!

Kal said...

When you consider wolves have played:

Everton, Newcastle, Tottenham, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Man City, Man Utd and Arsenal in their first 12...
it seems hard to base their long term performance on these match-ups.

So at least for some teams, i think a hybrid is still important. I tend to consult both each week anyway though.