Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Goalkeeper Pairs

The basic premise behind the goalkeeper rotation strategy is fairly simplistic but for further clarification please see the earlier post here.

The best pairs for the remainder of the season, ignoring price - to the extent that I only include 'keepers who cost 5m or less (actually 5.2m now Foster's value has gone up) - are as follows:
  1. Gordon / Fabianski (9.3m)
  2. Gordon / Begovic (8.8m)
  3. Gordon / Harper (8.8m)
  4. Gordon / Jaaskelainen (9.1m)
  5. Gordon / Schwarzer (9.3m)
  6. Schwarzer / Fabianski (9.6m)
  7. Gordon / Green (9.3m)
  8. Fabianski / Begovic (9.5m)
  9. Gordon / Foster (9.7m)
  10. Fabianski / Foster (10.0m)
You might start getting the idea that Gordon is pretty good value using my stats. This to be expected given the fact that Sunderland lead the league in clean sheets with 11, with no other keeper above having more than 7.

Given the lack of clean sheets this year and the unreliability of most of the defenses in the league, I would understand if some owners wanted to spend as little as possible on their 'keepers. With that in mind, here are the best combinations available for each price:
  • 8.1m - Kingson / Al-Habsi - average goals conceded 1.33
  • 8.2m - Gilks / Al-Habsi - 1.33
  • 8.3m - Kingson / Begovic - 1.01
  • 8.4m - Kingson / Begovic - 1.01
  • 8.5m - Gordon / Kingson - 0.87
  • 8.6m - Gordon / Kingson - 0.87
  • 8.7m - Gordon / Kingson - 0.87
  • 8.8m - Gordon / Begovic - 0.75
  • 8.9m - Gordon / Begovic - 0.75
  • 9.0m - Gordon / Begovic - 0.75
  • 9.1m - Gordon / Begovic - 0.75
  • 9.2m - Gordon / Begovic - 0.75
  • 9.3m - Gordon / Fabianski - 0.67
  • 11.2m - Hart / Begovic - 0.64*
  • 11.4m - Hart / Gordon - 0.51*
*I have added Joe Hart here for reference, he is too expensive to be part of the normal GK pair analysis.

In my view the best combo is either Gordon / Kingson or Gordon / Begovic who are a significant upgrade over the next cheapest pair and significantly cheaper than the few options who rank higher (Joe Hart's dominance shows here but not enough to justify the extra 2.5m unless you're really flush with cash).

Having used my wildcard this week I am going for Gordon / Kingson. I am concerned by Blackpool's lack of home clean sheet but remember that they have only played 8 home games so they have 3 games in hand on some teams in which to improve.


John said...

Kingson is quite the rotation risk with Gilks due back and Rachubka wanting to claim his (once regular) place back.

Leo said...

I just wrote this really long essay about why Sunderland were going to be a bad idea for clean sheets over the next 10 games, but then I changed my mind, they will presumably continue to keep clean sheets against unlikely sides as they have been (Chelsea, City, United)...they are going to have to with the most ridiculously hard schedule ahead, I just doubt many managers will be starting their black cats defenders for the games they do surprisingly keep clean sheets. If you are going to back them then remember you will have to back them through some seriously tough games when they simply won't seem like the best option.

I am seriously considering Hart, Richards and Kolo Toure for my wild card, paying 6.4 for Toure seems a bit mad but he plays, and Richards may well miss some games, overall I think having 3 man city defenders could really set me apart from the Sunderland crew. I have no doubt at all that in 10 games time city will have put some serious distance between itself and Sunderland in the clean sheet rankings.

Chris Glover said...

John - I say Kingson but I am really saying 'Blackpool's keeper' as all those keepers can be bought for the same price and once someone wins the gloves back, it's rare that they are rotated.

Steven said...

I have a hard time parting with Joe Hart. His value per the dollar spent might not be as great as the other cheaper options, but his overall score has to count for something. I have gained a few hundred thousand pounds off of him through the course of the season so I doubt I'll drop him now. I have Foster and Birmingham have not been all that impressive as a side, even if Foster has put up solid numbers.

I think I'm playing my wildcard at some point soon and will look to Gordon to replace Foster though. Any thoughts on predicted points for Foster vs Gordon?

Keep up the good work

Chris Glover said...

Steven - I think this year more than in the past there is an argument for keeping a premium keeper (well, Joe Hart) around and you make a good point when you say that his PPMS may not be the best but his pure points are outstanding. This decision has to be made at some positions (we would normally have made it with midfielders in the past) and so you could make the argument Joe Hart is a difference maker. It really depends if you can use the 2m you save elsewhere to make your team better.

Peter said...

just read your pre-season article on GK selection,amazing how much things have changed already!
I agree with the principle,I went for Robbo & Foster,then swapped Foster for alleged Utd. target Gordon,so far so good.Had to bring in Stockdale temporarily for Robbo but am shortly to play the WC and bring in Begovich or Harper for Stocky.
Obviously tempted to bring in Hart but too expensive,especially as I want to bring in Fabregas for Nasri.
Great effort with the site & stats,very helpful.

Andrew said...

I've decided to completely front-load my team with my wild card. As it stands, here's what I'm looking at:

Foster, Harper
Coleman, Foley, Djourou, Collins, Bardsley
Fabregas, Nani, VDV, Brunt, Adam
Tevez, RVP, Berbatov

Am I mad for going so cheap with the defenders? I obviously would never play more than 3. Coleman, Bardsley and Djourou would play most weeks unless they had an away match against a decent scoring team.

Jafalad said...

Thanks for the work on the gk pairing. May I suggest an alternative budget pairing that is based on home fixtures: Robinson and Bergovic.

These two have an almost near perfect home rotation for the remainder of the season. The only week they both play away fixtures is gwk 29 when they both visit relegation-threatened teams.

Robinson is due back from injury-it doesn't matter if he is out this week as Bergovic is the choice being home to Bolton.

Stoke and Blackburn are usually hard to crack on their home turf. Stoke have definitely been improving of late and have conceded less goals. I am of course assuming Bergovic holds his place as first choice keeper.

I'd be interested to know what the goals conceded is for this pairing to see how they compare with the other combos on your chart.