Thursday, February 24, 2011

Gameweek 28 Rankings

Clean Sheet Rankings
Clean sheets kept at home/away - opponent failed to score at home/away
  1. Man City (8 - 5)
  2. Man Utd (3 - 3) and (3 - 2)
  3. Chelsea (8 - 3)
  4. Stoke (4 - 7)
  5. West Ham (3 - 4)
  6. Newcastle (3 - 4)
  7. Aston Villa (5 - 3)
  8. Everton (3 - 4)
  9. Fulham (3 - 3)
  10. Liverpool (4 - 3)
  11. Wolves (2 - 5)
  12. Sunderland (4 - 2)
  13. Blackpool (5 - 2)
  14. Wigan (2 - 3)
  15. West Brom (0 - 3)
  16. Blackburn (0 - 3)
  17. Bolton (0 - 2)
Attacking Rankings
Predicted weekly goals in parenthesis
  1. Man Utd (2.8)
  2. Newcastle (2.6)
  3. Aston Villa (2.4)
  4. Stoke (2.4)
  5. Wolves (1.9)
  6. Chelsea (1.9)
  7. Everton (1.7)
  8. Blackpool (1.5)
  9. Man City (1.3)
  10. West Ham (1.3)
  11. Sunderland (1.3)
  12. Wigan (1.1)
  13. Blackburn (1.1)
  14. Bolton (1.1)
  15. Liverpool (1.0)
  16. West Brom (0.8)
  17. Fulham (0.5)
Captain Stats
Given their tricky fixtures, United players do not look like the slam dunk picks that Arsenal gave us last week, though they are still, of course, at the forefront of the rankings this week:

Nani - while the goals haven't flowed on the road (2 in 10) compared with at home (7 in 12), Nani's ability to contribute fantasy points from multiple sources (goals, assists and bonus points) make him a consistent performer with a relatively high ceiling. 49 points in his last 6 games rank him up alongside just about anyone else in the league and he is likely the only United midfielder who can be relied upon right now. In 3 games against opponents who concede less than a goal a game (as Chelsea do at home) he has failed to score and added just 10 fantasy points but the Wigan game looks like one in which he may prosper.

Wayne Rooney - like his teammate Nani, Rooney has 49 points in his last 6 games including three double digit performances. He too has struggled somewhat on the road (1 goal in 6) but he is clearly finding form at a good time and possibly has the highest ceiling of all United players this week. His 13% ownership is also a massive plus compared to Berbatov (34%) and Nani (45%) and Drogba owners should not think twice about making this move if they haven't already. Rooney is probably the best play this week taking all factors into account.

Dimitar Berbatov - Berbatov has really struggled away from Old Trafford this season with just 4 goals in 12 games (compared to 15 in 11 at home) and an average of just 3.1 fantasy points. He is also a massive rotation risk for the game with Chelsea as Ferguson tends to favour 4-5-1 with Rooney up on his own in the clashes with the other title challengers. He is course a solid pick for the week but as a captain option I think many may overrate him this week.

Nemanja Vidic - there was a time when United defenders were must own properties who would contribute clean sheets at least a couple of times a month and a player like Vidic may even add bonus points for his troubles. Away from home at least, that has been far from the case this season. Just three clean sheets have been kept on the road this year, though interestingly they were all against quality home opponents (Sunderland, City and Spurs). Chelsea have failed to score just once at home and Wigan have only had three blanks of their own but neither are firing on all cylinders right now and so United have two decent chances at a clean sheet making Vidic a good play, but not a captain option for me.

Carlos Tevez - 30 points in his last two home games makes a former United player hotter than any of his old teammates though the fixture is trickier than it looks (only Chelsea have conceded fewer on the road than Fulham this year). It's very tough to pick against the United players this week but if any is worth a role of the dice it is Tevez. With solid fixtures on the horizon Tevez makes a great buy this week if you are already maxed out on United players.

Darren Bent - moving away from Ferguson's men, Darren Bent has the fixture of the week and he could continue his useful start to his Villa career with another good game. He lacks the high ceiling of some of his United counterparts but if you are a gambling man he might be worth a roll of the dice.

Chaz Adam (don't sell him though!)
Jean Makoun

Thanks for reading and please post questions or comments below or @plfantasy.


Matt said...

Thanks, another great write up.

Would you suggest swapping Van Persie out for Rooney?

Steven said...

Hey Matt,

Not that I'm one you should follow, but I already did that :) Also swapped out Van der Vaart for Silva. 4 point hit necessary as I will have one roster spot empty this coming week unfortunately.

michael said...

Hi Chris,
Great site, really helpful.
There are other sites/blogs that deal with the inner mechanics of the FPL game, but I was wondering your opinion about price rises/drops. I dropped VDV before the double gameweek because of his injury and gw28 blank . He has been sold over 200,000 times since, but only dropped .1 in price.
What gives?

Chris Glover said...

Matt - that's a really tough one which I am facing too. I really like Rooney this week but I can't decide if I want to use two transfers to get him in (as I would want RvP back for his games vs Sun, Wb, Bla and Bll). I am leaning towards sticking with RvP but I wouldn't argue if someone made that move.

Steve - I think if you're going to make the move for Silva you are right to do it this week before City have their two home games. Fulham are good on the road but City are in very good form and Mancini seems to be loosening the reins a bit.

Michael - I try to understand these moves and have attempted to make transfers to capitalise but I can't work it out. Crack the Code does a good job of showing which players are due a rise but even then I've seen players with more than enough transfers to justify a move in price not generate anything. I wish they would do it more on a pure supply/demand basis as it would give some interesting opportunities to gain value. For example, despite having one of the best value fantasy seasons of all time, Chaz Adam is still only 6m, a 1m rise. Comparing that to a 0.7m fall for Valencia who was out for the season after just two weeks just looks bizarre. Adam's price should be in the 8m range by now to encourage people to look elsewhere for new talent.

Thanks for the posts guys. Good luck this week

TD Ocho said...

Don't sell Adam? But he's out 2 games, then has 2 away, then Blackpool host Arsenal. I'm not predicting big things in the near future.

Carroll=Shearer said...

Chris, am I right to assume that Al-Muhammadi is finished as an asset?

Steven said...

TD Ocho,

Seems like Adam gets bonus points in any fixture as well as goals and assists very anyone. Home or away, he's an incredibly valuable asset this year solely based on the bonus points he seems to receive weekly.

Doc Häagen-Dazs said...

No transactions for me this week. I have enough left, and I lahve a huge lead in my league. I'm just not going to spend anything until I see how the Gunners emerge from cup play this week. I just can't decide among my potential captains: Nani, Berbie and Tevez. I know all the arguments. I'm just hesitating..... before I pull the trigger.

Jafalad said...

"Don't sell Adam."

If you park the Chaz bus, you'll end up with a bench of VDV, Fabs, Foster, RVP, et al who are out this gwk.