Friday, September 16, 2011

Gameweek 5 Preview

In years past, Chelsea playing away at Old Trafford would have caused countless issues for fantasy managers, who would have been forced to contemplate how to use their Chelsea assets. No more. Aside from the emerging Mata, Chelsea have become a fantasy afterthought and instead it's Man City and Liverpool's tricky trips causing us issues this week.

The best fixtures for the week appear to belong to some of the mid-level teams, with Bolton and Everton looking like the pick of the bunch. Without further ado then, here are this week's clean sheet and attacking rankings:

Clean Sheet Rankings
Forecast goals conceded and clean sheets kept - opponents failed to score in parenthesis
  1. Aston Villa vs Newcastle (0.86 8-8)
  2. Everton vs Wigan (1.05 6-9)
  3. Man Utd vs Chelsea (1.10 11-8)
  4. Sunderland vs Stoke (1.12 7-10)
  5. Swansea vs West Brom (1.14 n/a - 9)
  6. Tottenham vs Liverpool (1.17 5-6)
  7. Wolves vs QPR (1.22 4 - n/a)
  8. Man City @ Fulham (1.31 6-4)
  9. Stoke @ Sunderland (1.36 4-5)
  10. Bolton vs Norwich (1.37 5 - n/a)
  11. Fulham vs Man City (1.38 10-6)
  12. Arsenal @ Blackburn (1.40 5-2)
  13. QPR @ Wolves (1.40 n/a - 4)
  14. Newcastle @ Aston Villa (1.40 7-5)
  15. Blackburn @ Arsenal (1.43 7-3)
  16. Wigan @ Everton (1.50 5-3)
  17. Liverpool @ Tottenham (1.54 6-4)
  18. West Brom @ Swansea (1.68 1 - n/a)
  19. Chelsea @ Man Utd (1.93 5-0)
  20. Norwich @ Bolton (1.95 n/a - 5)
It's all about playing the fixtures this week rather than relying on the 'big name' teams. I wouldn't advocate dropping your City players ever, but this is one of the weeks where you wouldn't want to bring in a second defender or perhaps you would consider using this week to move away from having two if that is your long term strategy. I would however recommend dropping your Chelsea players as United simply do not get shut out at home.

Attacking rankings
Forecast goals scored in parenthesis
  1. Bolton vs Norwich (1.95)
  2. Man Utd vs Chelsea (1.93)
  3. Swansea vs West Brom (1.68)
  4. Tottenham vs Liverpool (1.54)
  5. Everton vs Wigan (1.50)
  6. Arsenal @ Blackburn (1.43)
  7. Wolves vs QPR (1.40)
  8. Blackburn vs Arsenal (1.40)
  9. Aston Villa vs Newcastle (1.40)
  10. Man City @ Fulham (1.38)
  11. Norwich @ Bolton (1.37)
  12. Sunderland vs Stoke (1.36)
  13. Fulham vs Man City (1.31)
  14. QPR @ Wolves (1.22)
  15. Liverpool @ Tottenham (1.17)
  16. West Brom @ Swansea (1.14)
  17. Stoke @ Sunderland (1.12)
  18. Chelsea @ Man Utd (1.10)
  19. Wigan @ Everton (1.05)
  20. Newcastle @ Aston Villa (0.86)
It's a similar story to the defensive stats here, with several mid level teams taking the spotlight, supplemented by the ever-present Man Utd. Again, such has been City's dominance this year, I would never recommend dropping them, but this is a knock against the captaincy prospects of Aguero and co. It's a big week for players like Kevin Davies and Danny Graham who need to start showing us something if they are to remain on our radar.

Captain Picks
Wayne Rooney - in all honesty this section should start and finish with Rooney. The fixture sounds harder than it is and United and Rooney are insatiable right now. His ownership is up to 46% and he is well and truly in the Ronaldo zone where you almost have to captain him to avoid losing ground on everyone else. It would take some sack to tell Rooney the armband lies elsewhere this week.

Sergio Aguero - he's been almost as impressive as Rooney, in less playing time, and when all is said and done he could lead the league in goals and fantasy points. He carries some rotation risk this week having not missed a game since GW1 (including the midweek European tie) but given Mancini's latest comments, you would bet he would start. Fulham remain a good defensive team but haven't faced anyone of Aguero's quality this year so it's a tough game to call. The percentages tell you to captain Rooney but Aguero's ceiling remains as high as anyone.

Edin Dzeko - I'd suggest he is a slightly safer pick that Aguero, having been rested last weekend against Wigan. It's unlikely that City will continue to score at such a ridiculous rate, so before owning and possibly captaining Dzeko you have to ask yourself if you believe he is earning points himself or is purely a product of a dynamic system. If you feel it's the latter then his point scoring will slow much quicker than Aguero's but if not, then you have to feel he is outstanding value at 8.9m (I will expand on this in the long-promised City article which I hope to get up before this week's deadline, or if not, over the weekend).

The other names on the radar include the above players' teammates including Ashley Young, Nani, David Silva and Samir Nasri but the ceiling for that group is much lower than the aforementioned trio. Neither Chelsea nor Fulham have been bad at defending set pieces this year so I wouldn't put too much stock in set piece duties for this group, instead looking for someone like Nasri or Nani to score or create chances when cutting inside from the wings. It's inevitable that at some point Robin Van Persie will outscore Rooney and Aguero, but despite the general crappiness of Blackburn, the odds don't suggest that will be this week. I wouldn't question anyone giving him the armband but having been burned last week I am gun shy about being too cute here.

The promised City (and United) article will be up shortly so be sure to check back tonight (for those in the US) or before the deadline tomorrow morning (for this in the UK) if you have any last minute changes to make for these teams. It's been a busy week for me, hence the delay in posting, but next week we should be back to normal, so please post your comments/questions below or at @plfantasy and I'll get to them over the weekend/early next week.

22 comments:

Steven said...

Great read as always!

Raddz said...

Hey i was wondering how my team looks?
Given (Vorm)
Simpson, Woodgate, Jose Enrique (Sanderos, Bosingwa)
Young, Arteta, Brunt, Silva (Mikel)
Aguero, Suarez, Agbonlahor
i have 1 transfer and 1.8 in the bank i can spend.
obviously mikel needs to be transferred as he doesnt play
Should i use my wildcard?

nkbish0p said...

nice article again

Steven said...

Raddz: no to the wildcard, but it is tough not to have Rooney at the moment and Arteta is a risk too..

barraclough youths said...

Hi Guys

I payed 4.5M for all my defenders, but do not have the extra chash to upgrade 1 to 5M

S Taylor, Wes Brown, Ward, Woodgate, Zat Knight

Problem with Zat Knight, looks like he will not start every week

What are your thoughts on swapping him for Robinson or Steinsson???

Also got a problem with Woodgate, really want to keep him because Stoke are awsome, but its not sertain that he will stay fitt every week to score points, thinking maybe replace with a QPR or WBA defender, thoughts please????

Thanks ;)

barraclough youths said...

ok people this is my team for this week let me know what u think please ;)

Given
Zat Knight, Woodgate, Brown, Ward
M Petrov, Young, Nasri
Aguero, Rooney, Hernandes
Begovic, S Taylor, Moses, Ferguson

Knight and Woodgate might not start so then will be replaced by Taylor and Moses

Mitchell Stirling said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Mitchell Stirling said...

Begovic
-------
Warnock
Kompany
Smalling
Shawcross
-------
Silva (v)
Young
M Petrov
-------
Rooney (c)
Adebayor
Long
=======
Schwarzer
Brunt
Cabaye
A Hughes

Might be tempted with Brunt in for Shawcross on Saturday morning though

doka93 said...

Given,
Simpson, Smalling, Enrique
Mata, Sessegnon, Osman, Silva (V)
Rooney (C), Agbonlahor, Dzeko

Subs: Begovic, Moses, Bosingwa, Senderos

Kick Some Goals said...

BY - if I were you I'd swap Knight for Neil Taylor of Swansea, they seem to be doing pretty well at keeping cleansheets (certainly better than Bolton).

That'll also free up the 0.5 you need to upgrade Woodgate to Shawcross, so you keep a Stoke defender.

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Darlingboy said...

please, just don't come with promises you can't keep. for everything else - thumbs up!

Darlingboy said...

BTW what about my team :
Ruddy, Vorm
Gabbidon, De Laet, Taylor R., Taylor(swansea), Woodgate

Moses, Young, Nasri, Petrov(AV), Jarvis

Van Persie, Rooney, Aguero

Turtle said...

Can't believe the official site still doesn't have value for players... Top ten players by value:

1. Vorm 7.32
2. Taylor R 6.36
3. Begovic 6.08
4. Krul 5.78
5. Al-Habsi 5.78
6. Taylor 5.75
7. Simpson 5.75
8. Taylor S 5.74
9. Ward 5.63
10. Ferdinand 5.11

For more up to date statistics go to www.fantasypremierleaguestats.co.uk

Genevapics said...

@turtle:

You might want to put ManU in first place instead of Man City.

Dike said...

I'm top of your league thanks to some quality analysis. Keep it up!

Colin said...

Chris,

Just wondering about your feelings on Moses. Like you, I expected him to be a bit of a sleeper, but so far I've been a bit disappointed in him. He seems to have given just about exactly the performance you would expect of a £5M midfielder. I can't help but think there is better out there for this price, but I struggle to come up with them!

I already have Dyer and am now pretty happy with most of the rest of my team, so just looking at which laggards to cut. I know it's still early, but I guess it would be interesting if there was some kind of chalkboard analysis regarding who you think are the best options in this price range going forwards.

Players I'm interested in at moment, but frankly know next to nothing about are Faurlin, Johnson (Norwich), Britton, maybe even Obertan. I realise Moses is probably only one performance away from equaling the performance of these guys, but I think sorting out the midfield make up of the lower ranked players is quite important at this stage, as just about everyone seems to have two of Young, Nani, Silva or Nasri, with some afterthoughts alongside them. It's in the also rans that midfield will be won and lost imo.

Simon G said...

I took the plunge and played the wildcard this weed, and while my changes seemed to have worked out for the better, Is till had a slightly dissapointing week - 52 points.

I transfered out dzeko and bought aguero - good move in the gameweek but I didn't captain him - I went for the safer option of Rooney which would have been a fine choice had he not missed that penalty!

Got rid of Adam and replaced him with Nasri. Adam had a shocker - so a good move getting rid of him, but nasri was a little dissapointing - but it's a long term investment.

Other new buys - Bolton's Petrov and Wigan's Di Santo - both scored a goal, but no bonus points because they were on the losing side I guess.

The worse new purchases were my new Stoke boys of Walters and Shawcross. Despite a great run, Stoke decided this would be the week to fall apart - lets hope it;s a blip. Meanwhile, played Begovic over Vorm (who had a blinder).

I'm still fairly happy with the team, just bemused that this weeks total was so low. My team, to recap:

Begovic,Vorm
Shawcross,TaylorR,Ward,Simpson,Gabbidon
Petrov,Walters,Nasri,Young,Silva
Rooney,Aguero,Di Santo

Would welcome comments

Relentless said...

Simon team looks good from what I can see, I would be worried about Di Santo (3 goals this season all deflections?), maybe Best instead?

Nani over Young is starting to look the better option.

Plus Wolves recent defensive form concerns me and I feel there are better options for Ward at 4.8.

Certainly now QPR is staring to offer some value as their team settles.

Zerospeak said...

Simon

Played the wildcard myself this week. A bit kneejerk but I decided to switch my strategy to allow for two marquee midfielders instead of just the one. I just don't see the value in having mid-range (~6m) players like Sessegnon, Ramsey & Brunt. Their productivity over the long run is only going to be marignally better than those in the 4.5 range.

Admin-

Great work on this site btw. Top notch.

Raddz said...

Hey I was wondering if taking aberbyor over suarez was a good move right now or is there any better options in a similar price range? Suarez isn't looking that good but aderbyor only scored against 9 men liverpool... Also do you think that this is a good to use my wildcard?

eplfantasyfootballdugout.com said...

Darlingboy, would be concerned about RVP. Not a safe pick in my opionion. Surely Adebayor is the go.