Friday, September 30, 2011

Gameweek 7 Preview

Suffice to say, you're going to want to go big on United players this week, and if you stuck with Rooney (which your humble blogger did not) you face an extremely tough decision whether to captain him or not. It is there our focus lies for this week.

Option 1 - Captain Rooney
Rooney seems to have recovered quicker than expected, but with Hernandez and Wellbeck now also fit along with Berbatov waiting in the wings, I am not convinced he will start the game. United have been scoring goals for fun this year and there seems little motivation to rush Rooney back if he isn't 100% and risk losing him for bigger games on the horizon (Liverpool and City are next for United). If he starts, he is probably the best captain play this week and his ceiling remains higher than anyone. If he doesn't play at all then it isn't too big of an issue as your armband passes to someone else. My concern, and the reason I would ultimately not captain Rooney is that he might only get 45 minutes, or worse, come on for the last 15 minutes of the game. The chance of this is probably slim but 1 point captain weeks are crushing, particularly given the other options available. Caveat Emptor.

Option 2 - Captain another United player
I'm generally scared of the whole up-front situation so I'm not willing to throw Hernandez into this category for the same reason as Rooney. However, two excellent options remain in Nani and Young and based on their ownership number (Young 32%, Nani 28%), most of us own at least one of them. Readers will know that I am very much into 'key passes' and shots on target as indicators for future success, and those break down as below for this pair:

  • Young: 2 goals, 6 assists, 5 bonus points, 11 shots, 7 on target, 10 key passes
  • Nani: 3 goals, 3 assists, 7 bonus points, 13 shots, 5 on target, 13 key passes
My instinct says that Nani is more of a risk to drop a 2 pointer but, at least so far this year, this hasn't been the case (Young has three 3-point games to Nani's two). This is a really close call and I wouldn't transfer either for the other but if you're in the rare position of owning both, I will stick to my guns and take Nani's goalscoring ceiling over Young's assist potential. Either way you can't go wrong here and both make excellent options for the week, bringing a valuable combination of reliable scoring with high upside.

Option 3 - Go with a non-United player
Believe it or not, there are other games this week. Unfortunately, the two teams who provide the best captain options have road trips following tough midweek European games, so no one comes without risk:

Sergio Aguero
On paper, City's fixture isn't great, but this is largely based on Blackburn's solid home defense from last season, which has really taken a step back this season. Rovers have shipped 6 goals at home this year and haven't kept a clean sheet all season. Tevez's lack of 'want' will keep him out of the side for a while, paving the way for Aguero and Dzeko to start more often than not. Simply put, Aguero is possibly the most talented played in the league and deserves captain attention every week. Blackburn have conceded 6 goals over the last 2 games and are ripe for the picking here. Aguero's upside is off the charts and he will getting the famed Pure Juice armband this week.

David Silva
As with Aguero, City's fixture is probably better than the data shows. With Aguero looking set to start though, it's really hard to consider anyone in sky blue other than the little Argentine.If you aren't lucky enough to own Aguero, then Silva is a great fall back and he's only had one game scoring less than 5 points all year. I wouldn't put him ahead of the United midfield pair this week though.

Edin Dzeko
See Silva, David. I like Dzeko a lot but he just isn't in Aguero's class when it comes to scoring against any opponent. Again, a good option but I would put him below the United pair (and of course Aguero).

Robin van Persie
I'm not sure what to make of Spurs' defense, but one thing for certain is that, at home at least, they will put up a better showing than Norwich at Old Trafford or Blackburn against City. Van Persie is starting to rediscover his form from last year but the fixture scares me as while it could be another 4-4 barn burner, it could easily be a tight 1-1 affair. I am happy owning Van Persie for this week and beyond but the armband might be step too far for this one.

Answers to your questions will be posted later so those in the US can expect to see them tonight, while those in the UK should be able to see them before the deadline tomorrow morning.


Richard said...

Hey Chris. Love the blog mate. I came across it last season but forgot you in the off-season. Good to see you're still going strong.
I can relate to your fondness of statistics and enjoy analyzing the data so this is right up my alley. Job well done offering a different insight to that of the average football fan.

Kalix said...

Hey Chris,

Norwich failed to score in GW4 vs West Brom.

Liking the new weekly preview format!

Kalix said...

Also, Man City have two CS so far, not 0...

Maybe i'm reading the chart wrong?

Chris Glover said...

Sorry the chart isn't very clear, I will update the narrative. The number represents the clean sheets/failed to score at home/away so as City are away this week their number is zero.

k_lock said...

What do you think about Adebayor as captain?

Gummi at said...

So you pulled the trigger on Rooney? I hope you will regret it because I think I have to captain him. You post great arguments for Nani though.