Sunday, September 25, 2011

Lineup Lessons Gameweek 6

In order to keep the length of this post down, and to get it up as soon as possible, I am only going to comment on lineup issues for the week. I will then add general thoughts/news/trends in a separate scouting notebook piece later in the wek.

Szczesny, Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Gibbs, Arteta, Song, Ramsey, Gervinho, van Persie, Walcott
Subs: Fabianski, Rosicky, Andre Santos, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Arshavin, Frimpong, Chamakh

Not really sure what happened with Santos, who was replaced by Gibbs for the week. I'm not sure he's worth owning anyway as better options exist on his own team (Mertesacker or Koscielny while Vermaelen is hurt) and of course across the league. Arshavin was benched here which really underlines how that trio of Gervinho/Walcott/Arshavin is tough to predict, leaving Arteta and Van Persie as the only real reliable options in this side offensively.

Aston Villa
Given, Hutton, Collins, Dunne, Warnock, Petrov, Ireland, Delph, N'Zogbia, Agbonlahor, Bannan
Subs: Guzan, Albrighton, Delfouneso, Beye, Weimann, Lowry, Gardner

I very much like Bannan here, who seems to have permanently replaced Albrighton on the first team. His penalty duties are of course a bonus and suggest his manager has a confidence in him which indicates a prolonged run in the team. I keep promising a chalkboard post and Bannan deserves some attention in that upcoming review. Elsewhere it's as you were and this team is looking very settled.

Robinson, Salgado, Samba, Givet, Dann, Hoilett, Lowe, Nzonzi, Olsson, Formica, Yakubu
Subs: Bunn, Grella, Petrovic, Rochina, Vukcevic, Roberts, Hanley

The lineup is still pretty up and down though some constants can be found in Hoilett and possibly an emerging Yakubu. Rotation risk is only a concern if your players have value in the first place though, and at the moment the Rovers players deserve monitoring at best.

Jaaskelainen, Wheater, Robinson, Knight, Steinsson, Eagles, Reo-Coker, Muamba, Pratley, Petrov, Ngog
Subs: Bogdan, Sanli, Gardner, K Davies, M Davies, Boyata, Kakuta.

Kevin Davies hasn't been enjoying a good start to the season and the fact he is now benchable really hurts his value, much of which was derived from his reliability. At this point I'd prefer to role the dice with a Long, Ba or Di Santa rather than stick with Davies. The rest of the team is pretty much as you were, with Wheater only getting a game due to Cahill's illness. Steinsson versus Boyata is becoming a frustrating battle and there isn't enough potential value there to bother getting involved with that.

Cech, Bosingwa, Ivanovic, Terry, Cole, Mikel, Mata, Meireles, Ramires, Torres, Anelka.
Subs: Turnbull, Luiz, Lampard, Drogba, Malouda, McEachran, Kalou

We can conclude that Malouda has fallen badly down the pecking order and cannot be owned anymore. No one has really covered themselves in glory up front in Drogba's absence and with Torres' suspension, the Ivorian will surely reclaim a place in the first team. I don't read too much into Lampard's benching, who has actually been playing fairly well this year, despite a lack of elite production. That back line looks set, though expect Luiz to get a game soon as Villas-Boas looks to keep his side fresh.

Howard, Hibbert, Jagielka, Distin, Baines, Neville, Fellaini, Rodwell, Osman, Coleman, Cahill
Subs: Mucha, Heitinga, Bilyaletdinov, Saha, Drenthe, Stracqualursi, Vellios

Saha reclaims a place on the bench but of course his fantasy value remains non-existent until he can prove he can hold a first team place and stay healthy. Based on their value, I'm not sure I'd be comfortable owning a single player from this team. 26 forwards have as many points as ALL Everton forwards combined.

Schwarzer, Baird, Grygera, Hangeland, JA Riise, Kasami, Sidwell, Murphy, Dempsey, Dembele, Sa
Subs: Etheridge, Kelly, Ruiz, Senderos, Gecov, Etuhu, Briggs

This defence is starting to get a bit annoying now, and it's only going to get worse when Aaron Hughes gets healthy. Riise and Hangeland look safe but those price tags put them in the borderline elite category which I really struggle to justify for a good but not great defensive unit. As the newest signing, I wonder if Grygera will now establish a place in the first team, which would deliver good value at 5.0m. It's too early to take that risk after just one appearance though. Honestly, if you like Fulham, I'd just grab Schwarzer and plug him into a rotation strategy. Up front you have to imagine Ruiz will play at some point but I wouldn't be looking at him for a while yet.

Reina, Kelly, Carragher, Skrtel, Jose Enrique, Henderson, Lucas, Adam, Downing, Carroll, Suarez.
Subs: Doni, Gerrard, Coates, Kuyt, Spearing, Flanagan, Bellamy

It will be interesting to see what happens when Gerrard is fully fit as there is no obvious candiate to be dropped. My first thought is Henderson but he's played a lot so far this year and gives them width on the right which they would lose with Gerrard, particularly with Johnson still sidelined. He could take Adam's place in the middle but this seems less likely given the way Adam has really been the focal point of so much Liverpool have done this year. Finally, he could play off a striker, as he did for a while with Torres, but Suarez isn't a great fit for that role and it seems highly unlikely the Uruguayan would be benched. Some might suggest that they go Adam/Gerrard in the middle but I would be very surprised if Liverpool decide to proceed with no defensive option. I'd suggest that Downing and Suarez owners can sleep well but if you have Henderson/Adam/Carroll I would at least start thinking about what you're next move is, even if you don't pull the trigger yet.

Man City
Hart, Richards, Kompany, Lescott, Clichy, Nasri, Barry, Toure Yaya, Silva, Dzeko, Aguero
Subs: Pantilimon, Zabaleta, Milner, Kolarov, Savic, Tevez, Balotelli

Did City really just name an unchanged lineup? Unfortunately that probably means there will be some rotation on the horizon but you can handle that when the ceiling is high when they do play and I would therefore be happy owning pretty much anyone in this lineup aside from Barry (benched for De Jong soon?), Lescott (better options available for less money) and probably Yaya Toure (deep role for a high price).

Man Utd
De Gea, Jones, Ferdinand, Evans, Evra, Nani, Anderson, Fletcher, Young, Berbatov, Hernandez.
Subs: Lindegaard, Owen, Giggs, Park, Welbeck, Fabio Da Silva, Valencia

Berbatov gets a game! And not at centre back! Rooney's injury was a massive blow, after I had suggested he was my captain pick for the week. Evans' injury was also a disappointment and we should probably downgrade this unit as it isn't clear who can even start this week. Rooney is supposed to be out for a couple of weeks and my current thought process is that they will be targeting the City game for his return (Oct 23, GW9). Given that the City matchup is a tough one, that gives you three gameweeks where you wouldn't mind being without Rooney and so if you have transfers to spare, I might consider flipping him for Van Persie or Aguero, and then buying him back at a lower price in 3 weeks. If you want to make that move though, you need to act fast as many managers will surely sell Rooney this week, despite his excellent form to date.

Krul, Simpson, S Taylor, Coloccini, R Taylor, Obertan, Cabaye, Tiote, Gutierrez, Ba, Best.
Subs: Harper, Guthrie, Ben Arfa, Lovenkrands, Perch, Marveaux, Sammy Ameobi

Not much to add here as this team looks pretty settled. Ben Arfa may replace Obertan when fully fit but until we see proven production from him, neither are ownable anyway.

Kenny, Young, Ferdinand, Hall, Traore, Faurlin, Derry, Wright-Phillips, Taarabt, Barton, Bothroyd.
Subs: Murphy, Orr, Campbell, Buzsaky, Connolly, Smith, Helguson

Gabbidon was injured for this one so I still like him as an every week starter and that midfield is now looking pretty solid, suggesting a 4-5-1 shape will continue and Bothroyd will own that top spot on his own. I can see value in Taarabt, Wright Phillips, Barton and even Faurlin and with a solid looking defense, this team is quickly developing into one of the best sources of cheap options in the league.

Begovic, Wilkinson, Shawcross, Woodgate, Wilson, Pennant, Delap, Whelan, Etherington, Walters, Crouch
Subs: Sorensen, Huth, Whitehead, Upson, Shotton, Jerome, Palacios

Huth was a surprise drop here but I'd be surprised if this is anything more than a one week aberration. Huth has adapted fairly well to the right back spot I'd forecast him to return there next week. Woodgate once again proved he is without a doubt the first choice partner to Shawcross and I like him (when fit) as a very useful rotation play.

Vorm, Rangel, Monk, Williams, Taylor, Britton, Gower, Allen, Dyer, Lita, Sinclair
Subs: Tremmel, Graham, Dobbie, Routledge, Moore, Bessone, Richards

Graham found himself on the bench again and now needs to be sold. Despite his low price, you simply cannot carry players who aren't playing. Players in his price range are really limited though, so you might need to juggle a couple of players to replace him. Outside of Dyer, who has threatened but so far come up empty, I am not seeing too much here to get excited about.

Friedel, Walker, Kaboul, King, Assou-Ekotto, Modric, Parker, Sandro, Bale, Van der Vaart, Adebayor
Subs: Cudicini, Giovani, Bassong, Corluka, Livermore, Townsend, Carroll

I wondered how Redknapp would deal with Van der Vaart, but with Defoe out we didn't receive a conclusive answer. He did however tip his hand by showing a willingness to move Modric outside, which could pave the way for a spot in the middle of a 4-4-2 for Van der Vaart, leaving Lennon as the odd man out. Either way, Defoe and Lennon don't look like great options in this side, with Adebayor, Van der Vaart and possibly a re-merging Bale looking like the value here.

West Brom
Foster, Reid, McAuley, Olsson, Shorey, Dorrans, Mulumbu, Brunt, Odemwingie, Long, Thomas.
Subs: Fulop, Tchoyi, Morrison, Dawson, Jones, Cox, Scharner

Brunt found himself back in the lineup this week but I will need to see a consistent run and some production before I trust him again. The Baggies mustered just 8 shots all day and despite the consistent appearances for Odemwingie and Long, I am starting to get disheartened by this team's play. I like the team to bounce back at some point but as I said with Brunt last week, I am no longer willing to hold their assets while I wait.

Al Habsi, Gohouri, Caldwell, Figueroa, Van Aanholt, Diame, Watson, McCarthy, Moses, Di Santo, Gomez
Subs: Kirkland, Crusat, Maloney, McArthur, Sammon, Jones, Stam

Much like West Brom, Wigan have a few promising options up front but there is little predictability in the production with Moses in particular flattering to deceive. A lack of replacements for Moses and Di Santo make it tough to sell them and I think a separate post is in order on budget plays given the disappointing returns we're seeing from so many promising prospects.

Hennessey, Stearman, Johnson, Berra, Ward, Henry, Hunt, Edwards, O'Hara, Jarvis, Doyle
Subs: De Vries, Elokobi, Fletcher, Hammill, Milijas, Guedioura, Doherty

I don't know what Fletcher has to do to start every week but until he does, I find it hard to recommend owning him. I've liked Hunt all season so I was pleased to see him pick up the assist but this team is also a bit up and down and it's getting hard to distinguish between Jarvis, Hunt and O'Hara (at least in terms of underlying stats).


Raddz said...

What do you think of taking berbatov now that Rooney is injured?? or should i go with the obvious pick and take van persie as i already have Aguero and Agbonlahor?

amtosh said...

Almost 50% of all managers will be faced with the same tough choice this week. Whether to replace Rooney and who to replace him with.

I'm leaning towards Drogba as with Torres out he'll probably start the next couple of games up front although with only 1 goal all season I'm worried.

Also, City are playing Blackburn away and Villa at home so should pick up a few goals while Rooney is out. Who do you reckon will start those games? I've already got Aguero and am thinking of picking up one of Dzeko, Balotelli or Tevez. With Silva as well it might be a bit City-heavy even with the good schedule.

Any thoughts Chris?

chemikills said...

Dyer got a goal last week so he hasn't 'come up empty'

Also before last week (and possibly after haven't checked). Moses had the most shots on target for anyone under 8m, so the question is. Is he a poor finisher or is he going to get his just desserts? :p

S M said...

I like Bannan as a player, but with Bent, Heskey and Petrov soon again fit, he may be pushed to the sidelines again. It is a risk at least and I would say he needs to play a few games when all are fit to convince me he got a regular starting place.

Also wondering your thoughts on Newcastle? I'm a bit concerned about their next 8 games being rather tricky (with exception of a home game against Wigan). I'm gambling on them starting to crumble a bit soon, but would be could to get other opinions.

This comment has been removed by the author.
Grounderz said...

I wouldn't take Dimitar Berbatov if I were you. Yes, he had a run of good forms last season and hasn't been able to establish that goal scoring consistency himself to convince Sir Alex Ferguson to pick him for starters as often as people'd like to given his price tag. It'd be better if you go with what you mentioned. I like Aguero, although Agbonlahor seems like the safest pick most likely due to Bent's absence whereas City have a rotation risk up front so you may never know.

@Chris Glover
What are your thoughts on next week's Tottenham vs Arsenal? I agree with you. We should probably take couple weeks off Rooney and bring someone like Van Persie or Aguero in. Fergie just said on ESPN Soccernet that boy's out for a few weeks so we're not sure how long that would be. On Twitter, Wayne is hopeful for tomorrow's game. So it's either Adebayor, Van Persie or Agbonlahor for a temporary basis. What do you see from them and who's more likely to perform?

Raddz said...

@grounderz I agree about berbatov but I just wanted to try and take advantage of Man U at home v Norwich! Hernandez looks like he could be out also... I don't like aderbyor or van persie as much since they play each other but I was wondering what everyone else thought

Grounderz said...

Fair enough. Personally, I'm not convinced Berba will make to the scoresheet but the ball is round, anything can happen. He might just hold the lucky charm to nick in at least one goal there this weekend.

I thought having either Nani or Young is good enough for this weekend and spend that value somewhere else with a better fixture. Personal preference, I guess. :)

Davefevs said...

Made a pretty poor start to the season but made a bit of a bounce on the back of my RVP captain gamble (gamble being Arsenal's current form, not RVP's quality). Also got additional points from Bosingwa and Suarez, as well as a real bonus with Tiote's assist.

The decision this weekend will be what to do with potential injuries to T.Cahill and T.Walcott. Both would have been transfer options, so inury might force my hand.

The thinking would've been to try to jump on the Man Utd home bandwagon, but Rooney and Hernandez possible inuries, leaves a bit of a quandry, unless I go for a Man Utd defender!

My forward trio of Suarez, RVP and DiSanto are all away from home, although derbies for the first two mean the formbook goes out of the window....but I'd like to keep the 3 for the short-term at least.

Final option is to use 5.0m Roger Johnson to shake-up the defence a bit.

Any's my 15:

Given, Krul:
Bosingwa, Woodgate, R.Johnson, W.Brown, Kompany:
Walcott, T.Cahill, Tiote, Moses, A.Young:
DiSanto, Suarez, VanPersie:

Raddz said...

That true personally I am not 100% sold on Berba either and with welbek looking good early and the chance of either Owen or Hernandez playing he might be too risky... I already have Nani so I might go and get Van Persie to go along with Aguero as Tottenhams defence has looked a little shakey recently

Raddz said...

Also does anyone know of other elite striker with good looking fixtures??

Craig B said...

Hi Chris - I was curious what your thoughts are on Diaby's soon return to the arsenal lineup. I read somewhere (before they acquired Arteta & Benayoun) that he could play centrally in an attacking role. Not sure where he would slot in now.


Shep said...

Hi Chris. I'm in a bit of a quandry...

I made 3 transfers on Sunday morning (when i thought Rooney would be back for the Norwich match): Terry, Smalling and Delph out for P Jones, D Simpson and Nani. They cost me 8 points. Now it looks like Rooney is out for a couple of weeks I was thinking about transfering him... total 12 points deduction. If i do this, would i be better off using a wild card and making another could of changes (Given out for Begovic and Lucas out for Bannan) or stick with what i have??

Steve said...

Hi guys,

If Chris or anyone else can help confirm my thoughts (or suggest other transfers) that would be great.

Current team:
Krul Vorm
Bosingwa Ward Brown Simpson De Laet
Silva Walcott Young Taarabt Dyer
RVP Rooney Best

I have 2 free transfers with 0.5 currently in the bank.

I'm obviously looking at shipping out Walcott and Rooney with:
Walcott > Mata
Rooney > Aguero

and giving Taarabt 2 more games. If he still isn't doing it then he'll come out.


TD Ocho said...

Using your WC now will not make the transfers you already made free. You need to pump your brakes on the transfers.

Davefevs said...

@TD Ocho....I thought that any transfers made followed by a Wildcard would zeroise the minus managers the chance to stagger their transfers.

Happy to stand corrected!

TD Ocho said...

Actually, I stand corrected.

"Playing your wildcard will remove any points deductions from transfers already made in the same Gameweek."

I think that's new?

Shep said...

So what do we think guys? Suppose its a case of: ("gaining" 8pts; swapping Rooney; and looking so swap a couple of players i was thinking about removing soon) Vs (loosing wildcard this early). hmmm still non the wiser really. help!!!

Team at the moment is:

S Given. J Ruddy

P Jones. V Kompany. A Ferdinand. W Brown. D Simpson

Nani. D Murphy. D Silva. Lucas. S Ferguson.

W Rooney. S Aguero. E Adebeyor