Friday, November 18, 2011

Reader Questions

can you please update me on the goalkeeper combo strategy? did you try one? is it working? any good combos for the next 8 gwks?
The latest charts showing the best combos of GKs (as of GW11) are updated and can be found here. I am however conscious that I haven't yet done the analysis to prove that the GK-combo strategy has been a success this year, or whether in fact you should have gone with a De Gea type option. I will try and get that analysis knocked out over the weekend, though I would suggest that it will almost certainly have been preferential to employ the strategy so far with Vorm (originally 4.0m) leading all keepers in points by some distance. Throw in good starts for Krul, Al Habsi, Schwarzer and Hennessey and you have a recipe for a successful combo. In the pre-season (and before Vorm signed for Swansea) the recommended combinations were Given/Begovic or Begovic/Moreira (who became Vorm). Given has been a bit disappointing from that group, but I would surprised if both combos weren't close to or ahead of the De Geas and Reinas of the world.
Who to put my captain this week? Aguero, Silva, Adebayor, Suarez, Mata, Drenthe or Ramsey.
The upside picks are the City boys as normal though I wouldn't be surprised if either Silva and/or Aguero were rested this week. The somewhat reliable Guardian squad sheets suggests they will play, though there is undoubtedly a risk there. Adebayor also has a great fixture and should feature depite playing for Togo this week, though again there is a small risk of rotation (Redknapp could go with VdV and Defoe up top).
hey Chris, need a replacement for Ashley Young and the budget doesn't stretch to VDV or Nani... Bale, Adam or Dempsey?

I would have said Bale two weeks ago, but with Gerrard's injury I am higher on Adam again and given Liverpool's upcoming fixtures he should be poised for some solid production. He's never going to be the kind of player to score double digit points very often, but I like his consistency more than the boom and bust nature of Bale. Spurs do have good fixtures though, so I wouldn't argue with the selection of Bale here. As for Dempsey, I mentioned last week that I feel his is being undervalued, but yet I wouldn't make now the time to pick him up. The next 7 GWs see Fulham face Man Utd, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea along with tricky trips to Swansea and Sunderland. After that run I like him as a differentiator in the middle of the park but for now I'd go with the safe Adam or high ceiling Bale.

pp - What do you think about replacing VDV with Bale and replacing Aguero with Klasnic? In my view, they might not be fit.

As above, I like Bale but you have to accept that his production will be up and down and thus you have to (a) play him every week and (b) hold for a significant period or you risk missing out on the 'up' weeks. I personally hold Van der Vaart and Aguero and I don't plan to sell either. Aguero played for Argentina midweek and came through unscathed so while rotation is always a risk, he is at least fit. As for Van der Vaart, his chances of being fit were rated at 70% so you might consider moving him but I like him in the long term so I'm personally happy to wait a week, even if he sits this one out.
adamfarm - Love your posts, reading them has become a bit of an obsession this year. However, in spite of following the econometrics religiously I think it's important to temper this information with other information. For example, the math suggests Liverpool are a poor bet defensively, but they've kept clean sheets at the bridge 3 of the last 4 outings....combined with Chelsea's form of late I would suggest giving the likes of Enrique a good look this week in spite of the rankings. I know I'm not telling you anything you don't already know, and I appreciate that you often provide this type of counter-intelligence to your posts, but this seems particularly glaring to not call out.

You're absolutely right that there should be more factors to consider than the stats I provide but given my available time I struggle to cover all the bases. I shy away from past meetings between teams though, just because you can quickly get into irrelevant territory (different managers, players etc). My current rankings do factor in form by giving weight to the last 6 gameweeks, though I haven't really settled on whether this makes them any stronger or not (is there really such thing as 'form' or just random strings or results which sometimes look strange?).

The rankings won't always be right, and to be honest, you won't win the overall competition following them. To do that you need to take big risks and make big upside plays, which is not what I'm all about. I do however believe that if you make the logical play every week, you will generally get the best results. I would urge managers to use their own judgement if they like a particular fixture though, and there's a good argument to play Enrique this week based on his form and attacking potential.
PUI615 - I have a real dilemma on my hands: I have 3 possible options as a keeper defender strategy-
1.)De Gea and 4mil defender(Gabbidon or Mcauley) since I already have Simpson,Turner and Wilk.
2.) Howard, BAE
3.)Friedel, Hibbert
Which would you prefer and why. Thanks for any thoughts, need to bring in the defender next GW.

I generally go for the budget keepers so honestly I would shy away from all three of those suggestions and use the extra cash to improve your defense. The difference between Howard/Friedel and the cheaper keepers like Vorm, Al Habsi and Krul is slim (if it even exists) and that extra 1.0m could allow you to upgrade from a Assou Ekotto to someone like Jose Enrique or Phil Jones. If however you would prefer a top keeper, I would go with option one. De Gea is a bit of an exception among elite keepers of recent years in that he brings good save totals too, which could help him lead keepers in points (but not value) this year. Of the 4.0m options to accompany him I would probably go with N Taylor or Gabbidon.


Derek said...

I've Van Persie, Aguero and Sturridge up front. Sturridge hasn't been doing it for me unfortunately and have missed a good few points through Ba for example. Would you hold out? Or is there another better option for 6.6 or less?

chemikills said...

@teekleton I'd recommend Vorm/Begovic to rotate with Krul/Hennessey/Howard

Basically Swans and Stoke share home games so both teams rotate with the following 3.

Hennessey has the strongest fixture run but wolves haven't been the best defensive bet

Howard has a very strong run but you pay the price for him

Krul doesn't have the best fixture run but after the tough one this week it works

I reviewed keepers in GW9, the top rotation was Begovic and Vorm with 65 points. However as pointed out earlier they share home games now so not a good bet imo

Vorm/Foster was 2nd with 61 points
Al habsi/Vorm, Al Habsi/Schwarzer and Krul/Vorm all scored 57 points

Krul/Vorm have a great go ahead to continue rotating so I'm personally sticking with double dutch :P

PUl615 said...

Big big thanks for the answer, still leaves me confused :D Dont want Krul since I have simpson already, and having a Wigan keeper is just sad :D.
But I think going for De Gea, is what I will do. Dont want P Jones. I am very sure he will get rotated. But really was looking to have Tott/Everton cover. Looking at their nice run of fixtures and the DGW coming up. I might go with the extra investment and De Gea and Hibbert/BAE :D

Colin said...

Hi Chris,

Welcome back. Just wanted to post my team and see what comments you have. I've chopped and changed it a bit in the last few weeks, but I think I now have something that I'd like to leave in place for a few gameweeks (barring injuries)

Vorm, Begovic

Jones, Enrique, R Taylor, Warnock, Ward.

Van der Vaart, Silva, Pilkington, Allen, Eagles

Dzeko, Aguero, Van Persie

Do you think there's anyone I should be looking at dropping/bringing in?

Chris & Gillian said...

Bang! Van P as captain!You cant ask for a better start than that,well maybe a hat-trick!Great posts Chris, much obliged :)