Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Replacing Schwarzer

Mark Schwarzer has been ruled out for anywhere up to 6 weeks with a spinal issue and given the nature of the injury, you wouldn't be 100% confident that those timelines will be accurate. In short, he needs to be replaced and given that a large portion of his owners will have been pairing him with Vorm, that move needs to be made quickly given Vorm's away trips this week and next (@New and @Eve). If you don't own Vorm then barring a total mismatch of fixtures, the Swansea keeper is your ready made replacement, and hey, you'll even get a bit of change.

So, who should Schwarzer/Vorm owners target? Well the defensive fixture rotation stats point to a number of options whose games will fit in nicely with Vorm (who can now be option 1a in rotation option rather than 1b as expected given Swansea's start to the season):

Tim Krul - 4.9m
Krul would have been the pick 6 weeks ago but with S Taylor out for good and Coloccini also sidelined, Newcastle's recent defensive struggles become predictable rather than unexpected. They have just one clean sheet in the last 11 games and don't seem to be showing signs of getting back on track. I don't see Newcastle becoming a top defensive unit anytime soon.

Radek Cerny - 4.0m / Paddy Kenny - 4.4m
Kenny should be back this week or next (you wouldn't want to play him against Utd anyway) though QPR have really declined defensively of late and I'm not sure Kenny or Cerny is the answer here.

Brad Guzan - 4.4m / Shay Given 4.8m
Given is still out for another 3 weeks or so but given that in that time Villa face Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea, I don't think it's worth making a move to Guzan. Whether or not you target Given is a question for next month.

Keiren Westwood 4.4m / Simon Mignolet 4.3m
Mignolet's injury is another one that is hard to predict and it looks like he'll be out for at least another month. Westwood has performed really well in his absence and while this team hasn't exactly had a revolution since O'Neil arrived, they have at least been consistent all year rather than following a dynamite start with a couple of months of defensive craptitude (I'm looking at you Newcastle and QPR). The problem is that Sunderland have a tough month of fixtures, which is the main time you want someone to fill in (you can always get Schwarzer back during the free wild card period).

Brad Friedel - 5.5m
Too rich for my taste but the fixtures are good and Spurs are a decent defensive side. Worth a look but I'm not sure he's worth ~1.0m more than the above group.

Thomas Sorensen - 4.3m
Sorensen isn't locked into this spot but until he messes up it would appear that the job is his to lose. Stoke's fixtures don't gel with Vorm's as well as the above teams and he has two road games in the immediate future, including a trip to City so you don't gain a great deal in the short term by making this move. I like this idea if you want to pick a match for the long run but assuming you're just trying to make it until your wildcard, you can do better in the short term.

David Stockdale - 4.5m
If you were happy with Schwarzer then you should be happy with Stockdale who is a capable replacement for the Australian. You get the excellent fixture this week and Vorm gets decent fixtures to cover Stockdale when he plays United, Arsenal and Chelsea in the coming weeks.

You really screwed us Mark. Of the players who fixtures go well with Vorm, none of them really inspire much confidence. With the above in mind I am leaning towards Stockdale as Schwarzer's replacement. This allows you to make the move now and protect yourself from the future price decline facing Schwarzer as well as capitalise on the good looking fixture this week against Bolton.

If you don't own Vorm, and have no intention of doing so, you can check out the other defensive pairings here, though I'd urge you to reconsider given Vorm's performances to date.


Pat said...

what about hennesey?

RohitChockattu said...

I'm taking wildcard dis week. Is this team gud?

Walker, Enrique, Evans;
Johnson(Norwich), Bale, Nani, Mata; Sturridge(C), RVP(VC), Ba.

Subs : Vorm, Vermaelen, Gower, Taylor.

Anonymous said...

According to ESPN, Etheridge is starting in goal, not Stockdale.

Pat said...

fullham's fixture is shit!

vanilla said...

Chris, many of us make transfers earlier in the week in anticipation of pending price changes, so it would cost an extra 4pts to make the transfer. Your reluctance to give up points is well-known, but a situation like this presents a value question:
At what point is 4pts worth saving 0.2M in budget? (assuming the worst-case, Schwarzer's value dips 0.1m this week, before a manager is due the next week's free transfer, and any of his worthy replacements would go +0.1m)

vanilla said...

and yes, I know that The Answer is always subjective. Everyone values the pts/budget balance differently. For some, points are all, and for others, budget flexibility is their approach. I'm asking from curiousity... like The Million Dollar Man, Ted Dibiase once said, "Everybody's Got His Price... Muuhahahhahah"

stooshermadness said...

Chris - good post. As Pat says above, what about Hennessey(4.5) ? He's a saves machine (he's the league leader and has 12 more than de Gea/Freidel in 2nd) and I was surprised to see he's on 57 points too)and he rotates home/away with Vorm. I'm also thinking about a 6 GW flyer on Freidel. A bit pricy compared to your other candidates here and compared to Hennessey, but if you look at rotation with Vorm, he probably starts 5 of the 6 GWs, plus the DGW21. Not bad for a 5.5 guy.

stooshermadness said...

I meant Freidel's DGW20. I'd keep him through GW21, then WC out of him.

Chris Glover said...

Pat - The fixtures don't gel well with Vorm at all and if you don't own Vorm I think you should. I don't think any of the mentioned teams are that great (like Wolves) so I'd prefer to take my chances playing the fixtures.

Edmond - I almost didn't post this because of that concern. Everything I could find said Stockdale will play but of course he's only just been recalled from loan so there is a risk. I am personally waiting until Friday to get a better idea. Etheridge played in the Europa Cup but again, that could be because Stockdale had only just returned.

Pat - this week? Bolton at home is about as good as it gets. Long term I agree they aren't great but the fit in with Vorm quite well and Fulham are one of the better defensive teams on this list.

Vanilla - that's a good point and one I've tried to assess before (and failed). I would say that it's worth paying 4 points if your budget is wafer thin (ie. you want to sell Player X for 5.0, you have 0.2m in the bank and the player you want is 5.2m. Any delay would mean not be able to afford him). To save money for monies sake though is a different question. Over a season 4 points isn't going to make a difference but given that should still be able to make the move next week, you still need the player to rack up 4 points this week to break even. This deserves its own post, though I don't think I'll be able to come up with a great answer (perhaps less rambling).

Stoosh - I think I need to redo this list in light of holding a player for just 6 weeks or so and then wildcarding him out. Sounds like a plan for the weekend. Short term

Gummi at said...

What at going for Moreira (3.9, Vorm's replacement) and gambling on Vorm's ability to get points from saves on the road?

This, of course, is only smart if you can use the money saved on productive transfers elsewhere?

Davefevs said...

Just to add, Vorm looks a very fine keeper, irrespective of fantasy football. Wonder if any big teams will look to make Swansea an offer in January?