Thursday, March 22, 2012

Gameweek 30 Captain Rankings

P90 Points scored per 90 minutes at home/away based on this week's opponents QG%Percentage of games played where the player scored 6 or more points xPct The percentage of his team's goals a player has accounted for, multiplied by the expected goals for this weekRating Based on the player's rankings in the other three categories.

After a couple of down weeks in these parts thanks to less interesting commitments, we're finally back with a proper captain preview. In truth, you probably don't need any advice these days though. I expected a toss up between Van Persie and Rooney though the data favors the Arsenal man quite strongly.

It's tough to argue really, given that Van Persie is averaging more points per game and has notched more quality games while facing a team with an equally mediocre defence as Rooney. Oh, and he has 7 goals and 4 assists over the past 6 gameweeks.

Playing devils advocate, Rooney is of course in pretty sensational form himself, adding 7 goals of his own over his past 6 gameweeks. According to ESPN, Van Persie has added 24 shots, 13 on target over those past 6 gameweeks compared to Rooney's 25-18 so there is at least some hope there than Rooney could enjoy the edge in any given week. You could also factor in that over the past 5 home starts, Rooney has added an astonishing 36-17 shots including 6 converted into goals.

Other than the shot data, the odds say to go with Van Persie, though it wouldn't be surprising for Rooney to have a big game of his own. The problem for me is that Rooney carries just a large of a following (34%) as Van Persie (38%) so you aren't really gaining any differentiation bonus by going for the United man as your skipper. For that reason, Van Persie will get my armband this week.

If you're desperately in need of a differentiation option then you could do worse than a couple of undervalued midfielders in red hot form. Valencia is still held by just 5% of managers but has been as good as anyone over his past 6-8 games, while Sigurdsson (held by just 3% of managers) has been equally as impressive, with three double digit games over the past 6 gameweeks. I'd be thrilled to own either for this week and probably the remainder of the season, but it would be extremely difficult to captain either of them ahead of Van Persie, despite the desire to differentiate. The upside is clearly there but consider that Sigurdsson has 4 games with 3 points or less in just 9 games, while Van Persie has just 6 in the last 22 games. Valencia has a higher ceiling than the Swansea playmaker, but he too carries significant risk, not even being guaranteed to start the game if Nani is fit once again.

This looks like one of those weeks where your big decision is how to use your free transfer rather than who to captain. Don't overthink this guys, Van Persie and Rooney are just too good to ignore.

For a few transfer ideas, I penned a somewhat lengthy piece on rotation options over at Fantasy Football Scout, so check that out if you have a spare couple of minutes (okay maybe more than a couple). Thanks for your patience while the updates have been a bit slow, they should be more plentiful and timely for the remainder of the year.


Grounderz said...

Chris, why aren't you doing gameweek previews and lineup lessons anymore? We understand if you're busy but hope it's not permanent.

Gummi said...

Yup, I especially love the lineup lessons.

The captain's choice seems a bit obvious this Gameweek and I think I'll make the sane choice and going for RvP (C) and Rooney (VC).

What do people think of Ba in his current form? Is it time to get rid or hang on patiently?

Kalix said...

I don't know that ownership is a true reflection of captain differential:

I think its safe to assume most rooney owners already own RVP (certaintly true in my leagues).

The differential comes from the
fact that 66% of those will probably captain RVP (based on FFS pole). So already you cut the % of people with Rooney as captain to something like:

30% roo owners dont own RVP and captain rooney:
0.30 * 34 = 10.2%

70% roo owners own RVP, 33% of those captain Rooney:
0.70 * 34 = 23.8% * 0.33 = 7.85%

So we could guess only 18% of FPL players will captain Rooney.

From the same logic almost 30% of players will captain RVP.

Couple this with the fact that most league leaders aren't taking unnecessary chances, and will captain RVP (I know I will), and you have even more cause to captain Rooney if are desperatly trying to catch up in your mini-league.

(NOTE: my numbers are educated guesses, but you get the idea)

(on a side note...its incredible that RVP only has 38% ownership, he deserves 55%!)

Chris Glover said...

Grounderz - well the weekly previews have moved to a more data based approach of late, and that will probably stay like that for the rest of the year. I'll tend to add narrative when there are double gameweeks coming up, or a big injury etc, but for business as usual I hope to rely on data, and get that up on the site as soon as possible to allow for planning of everyone's transfers.

Lineup lessons will be started again this week, I had to miss a few back thee because of other lame committments.

Gummi - I still like Ba and his underlying shot numbers remain solid. I'm turned off by the high ownership numbers so I might consider someone like Cisse or Odemwingie, though both come with higher risk. If your budget stretches far enough, I would strongly consider Adebayor given Spurs' favorable run in. The off in GW34 in a downer but at least you get the DGW to make up for it. I know Spurs have declined of late but he remains a top buy for me.

Kalix - that's a very good way of looking at, and something I'd never really thought of in detail. You're totally right and your educated guesses look reasonable. I think there's also a strong chance in this case that a larger portion of Rooney owners are non-active and thus his overall ownership may be inflated somewhat. We could therefore be in a position when around double the number of managers captain RvP as Rooney, possibly more.

This wouldn't be as dramatic of a differentiation, as say, captaining Sigurdsson, but you're right there is value there and it's probably a calculated risk. I will try and think of way to factor that kind of analysis into future posts.

Thanks for the comments guys

kelbino said...

Just want to say Thanks a ton for the blog. It has been a great source for ideas and info all year. It's a hard job you do here that is very time consuming. I am quite sure it's the passion that drives you but, we appreciate all that you present in this blog.

amtosh said...

Fark... I got smashed this week.

Whodathunkit? Arsenal winning 3-0 with RVP not getting either a goal or an assist. Swansea shipping 2 at home vs everton, City fighting out a 1-1 draw with Stoke, Liverpool losing to WIGAN, Newcastle getting 3 with nothing for Ba, and Chelsea and Spurs in a dull goalless draw.

19 points with Rooney and Evans still to play. This is my worst week ever.

Chris, should I hold onto my wildcard in anticipation of the upcoming DGWs? Or try and make the best team for the next 8 or so games regardless?