Friday, April 13, 2012

Gameweek 34 Captain Data

P90 Points scored per 90 minutes at home/away based on this week's opponents QG%Percentage of games played where the player scored 6 or more points xPct The percentage of his team's goals a player has accounted for, multiplied by the expected goals for this week Rating Based on the player's rankings in the other three categories. 

These games are barely giving a humble blogger enough time to set his own team (I someone failed to 'confirm' my changes last week, resulting in Rooney getting the arm band over Van Persie), never mind look too far into the future. It's on that note I offer a lowly apology for the lack of attention for the upcoming double gameweeks. I hope to get something out early next week, but in the mean time our good friends at Fantasy Football Scout have you covered.

Onto this week then. What we lack in depth we gain in quality as both Van Persie and Rooney look like irresistible options this week. Indeed, there isn't too much analysis to add here. If you purely want to maximise your chance at points, it's tough to look beyond Van Persie. He leads or ties in every key metric other than P90, which Rooney edges by 0.4 points. Despite Wigan's result this week, I'd still suggest there is a gulf in quality between them and Villa, giving Van Persie the better fixture in terms of both likelihood of success and upside.  For all the hand wringing over McLeish's Villa side, they've only conceded more than two goals on three ocassions, and they were all against quality opponents (Arsenal, City and Chelsea). Wigan on the other hand have conceded three of more goals on no less than 10 occasions, though to be fair, not once since Jan 31.

Van Persie is picking up 58% of the votes in the FFS poll making Rooney a differentiator of sorts. I like that play much more than rolling the dice on a risky transfer so those looking to gain ground should really look at Rooney who is almost as good a play as Van Persie on paper but will surely attract far fewer captain votes.

If you're really desperate to gain ground then Valencia and Walcott look like a good pair of options, though I'm not sure this is the week to be getting cute with your captain pick. I'd prefer to stick with one of the elite options this week then take a chance on someone like Cisse next week, or even one of the double gameweekers (Miyaichi or an emerging Petrov look like the best picks there).

I start this post every week hoping to come up with a real hidden gem but of late it's been pretty boring stuff. Hopefully the data is at least giving you some clues as to how to pick between the elite pair, and it has generally been pretty reliable over the past weeks. Just how effective it is will be analysed after the season. 


Matt Stone said...

Thanks Chris, keep it up!

EddieO said...

I'm a bit surprised that Sessegnon doesn't get a mention as a possible differential captain? Wolves defense is horrible. RVP is a good favorite but Wigan have tightened up a lot. Rooney may well bounce back but AV defense will probably be stingy.

CDI said...

Hey Chris, just a quick question in reflection of the season so far. Do you regret not trying to increase your team value during the first half of the season? I can't help but notice that my team value is 9 mil higher than yours which seems like a giant gap. I have only taken 2 hits this season so it wasn't down to chasing value but simple making my transfers sooner than you did e.g I would make them on monday/tuesday while you would make them on friday/saturday morning. Will you consider changing your approach next season to allow for a better 2nd half team value?

El Noel said...

+1 for Super Sess.

Anyone vs Wolves should surely be captain from here on in?

Thanks for all your hard work Chris, 'tis much appreciated.

Mathias Johansson said...

CDI: Value is only useful (apart as an indicator that you have players that other managers want - ie they rack up points) in it's sell on form. And when you sell players you loos much of that value. I think I share Chris scepticism towards chasing value. Much better to chase points which will probably mean value as well. That said I don't see anything wrong with buying early before a game week - it adds a little variance/risk to your predicted score obviously but probably not that much since any given player don't get injured that often.

The main drawback is probably that you don't have time to do proper analysis before the transfer

CDI said...

I wasn't really recommending chasing points even though thats basically what FPL is. You get the form players when they are in form and cut them for when they no longer add value(points) to your squad. The timing in which you do this will basically decide if you finish in the top 1k or 200k.

There was a point in the season where Chris mentioned that team value was overrated as he could buy the current dream team with his low team value but what about now? Wouldn't it benifit you to not have to chose who to leave out from Dempsey, Bale, Walcott, Valencia and Siggy?

I hope I'm not sounding confrontational as I respect his opinion alot but it seems we just dont see eye to eye on this aspect of the game which is prefectly fine.

CDI said...

I think I contradicted myself a bit in that first paragraph as I guess I am recommending chasing points but just doing it earlier in the week.

The point about injuries is true but the risks are pretty minimal imo. I don't buy players before the games are over as you are more likely to get hurt in a game than in training. I mean how often has a player u wanted to bring in gotten hurt during the week?

Mathias Johansson said...

Nah, I agree that there is probably no great risk involved with buying early, it will probably increase your variance a little bit but I think that fear is overstated.

That said, I haven't concerned myself unduly when I do the trade and I still sit upon a team valued to about 109 + 1. That would be lower of course where I to sell but the main point is that I have got value as a bonus to points. And for all the remaining games I have no problem getting the players I want