Friday, April 27, 2012

Gameweek 36 Captain Data

P90 Points scored per 90 minutes at home/away based on this week's opponents QG%Percentage of games played where the player scored 6 or more points xPct The percentage of his team's goals a player has accounted for, multiplied by the expected goals for this week Rating Based on the player's rankings in the other three categories.

We discussed some transfer targets yesterday so take a quick look over there if you're still unsure on who you want to bring in this week. A couple of readers noted that I neglected to mention the upcoming FA Cup final, which is a fair point, though it's something which doesn't have a huge impact on the week. If you own Liverpool or Chelsea players you're going to play them regardless, on the assumption that they will get at least 90 minutes, and I'm not sure any of them are great transfer targets anyway, with perhaps the exception of Mata who I highlighted in yesterday's piece. The cup final probably puts a slight knock against him but I'd still take what is likely going to be full game against QPR at home and then a chance at decent minutes against Newcastle (a must win game, by the way) than stick with someone with just a single game.

I've talked about Cisse at length over the past couple of weeks so I won't dwell on it again here. The situation is fairly simple: he can't continue to score goals at his current rate, based on the number of chances he is getting, but when the regression comes is less clear. I understand the idea behind riding a hot streak, even if I'm not sure it's rooted in fact, and without too many other great options this, he makes a very solid play. Just be sure to understand the risks too.

Without the recent injury and possible dressing room unrest, I would have comfortably handed Adebayor the arm band this week but now the situation is a tricky one for fantasy managers. If he's healthy I think he plays as Redknapp can't afford to let egos get in the way of their chase for Champions League football. That, of course, is a big 'if' with Physio Room suggesting he will be fit, while the officials are less clear giving him only a 50% chance. I think you have to go with Cisse over him unless we get clearer evidence that he faces Blackburn on Sunday, though I still like Adebayor over some of the more established captain picks like Rooney, Van Persie or Aguero, providing that is, we don't get any more negative news. 

For the double gameweekers you should probably put more emphasis on the xPct column as this is only data which accounts for the extra expected goals scored by a player's team. That leads you to players like Gareth Bale, Frank Lampard and, I suppose, Jermaine Defoe though I wouldn't touch the latter given the uncertainty around who'll play up top for Spurs. I would look at Lampard if was playing my wildcard or had two free transfers to spare but otherwise he still doesn't represent great upside for his price tag. I like Bale more than the stats given his excellent underlying numbers (not reflected in the formula) and probably like him the most among midfielders this week. 

While Rooney has enjoyed success in the Manchester derby before, the odds aren't in his favor and I wouldn't consider him a captain pick this week. Of the non-double gameweekers I would likely look towards Van Persie, despite his blip in production of late, though again he doesn't look like an outstanding play. A few managers have floated the idea of ditching Rooney or van Persie in favour of one of the double gameweekers this week, but take quick look at the upcoming rankings before doing so:

Cisse comes out on top over the remaining three gameweeks but van Persie is tied for the final two gameweeks, which when you consider the regression we are suggesting Cisse is due, suggests that bailing on the Dutchman for the Newcastle hit-man is premature. If you believe van Persie has really taken a step back and Cisse can out shoot Leo Messi, make the move, but if you believe in the regression argument then van Persie remains the better option for GW37 and 38 and thus some caution should be exercised. 

As for Rooney, that is a close call as he faces a tough game in GW38 which dampens our expectations a bit. Statistically the pick is therefore Cisse, though some realism has to be baked into our expectations and the chance of a Sunderland side with nothing to play for keeping United out if they need a win to clinch the title looks slim. 

I know some readers think I am too conservative with this kind of move, and honestly, my approach will almost certainly prevent you from winning the whole game (to do you need to take gambles and be first to market numerous times). If however, you're happy to go with a somewhat conservative, but rational approach, I am much more comfortable using Cisse as a third forward alongside the elite pair and looking to gain ground on your competition elsewhere in your team (perhaps double down on Everton defenders or nab Juan Mata etc). 

Let's wrap this up then before I get further off track. I will make an extra effort to get on to answer reader questions this week as I'm sure the majority of us have bigger issues to deal with, rather than the normal Vorm v Mignolet toss up.  For Twitter fans, the @plfantasy handle is now free of other non-fantasy nonsense so if my baseball ramblings have turned anyone off, come on back!


CDI said...

Hey chris, great blog as always. BAE getting injured has put a major spanner in my plans. Orginally I had planned to do Walcott and RVP out for Bale and Jelavic but that would leave me without and DGW defensive cover and force me to play 1 of Evans or Kompany(do not want).

Which one of the follow do you see having the best value/highest upside.
1)Sticking with my original play
2) Original play with a hit to bring in Terry/Walker/Jagielka any others?
3)Keep RVP and do Walcott and BAE out -> Bale and Walker(I would have excatly 6.1 left after walcott out)

Not really convinced TOT can turn it around based on what I've seen but I feel bale has the best chance of getting 180 mins and has reasonable upside. I could easily be convinced to ignore the rest of that team.

What are your views on players Like HBA and Pienaar? Do you think they would be better picks than someone like Sessegnon this GW? Do their numbers suggest they are able to sustain their current form?

Sorry I bombbarded you with this wall of text. Thanks for all the help over the season.

Current team for context:

Schwarzer, Mognolet

BAE, Vermaelen, Kompany, Evans, Caulker

Bale, Sess, Siggy, Valencia, Walcot

Cisse, RVP, Rooney

snowman said...

no Jelavic in the Captain rankings? really?

Gummi said...

@snowman: I agree. I Jelavic him on top of my list with his fixtures and Everton´s form.

@CDI: I´m no Chris Glover, but I would go for 1) if you are leading in your minileague (ie. not chasing) and 2) if you need the points to gain ground. Chris was preaching keeping RvP and had the fixtures to back him up, but in the games I've seen he looks tired.

Roachmeister said...

Great blog as ever. I'm currently 23 points clear on top of my minileague but have a defender problem. My five defenders are:

R Taylor

My plan this week is use my free transfer and take a 4 point hit to ship out Cahill and BAE - I figure Taylor on a double gameweek will at least make a subs appearance. My only other rival for the top has less players than me in playing double this week so shouldn't be able to massively outscore me without also apending some transfer points. So with that in mind, I've whittled down my defensive replacements to:

Kyle Walker
Jagielka and
Mike Williamson

I figure Huth's offensive options are a bonus, Walker has the easiest run-in, Jagielka is playing Wolves next week, and Newcastle are being pretty mean with the clean sheets. I've no worries finance wise, so was looking at Huth and Walker, but anted to grab a couple of opinions first. Can anyone give me a hand?

CDI said...

Thanks a lot Gummi. I appreciate any input I can get. I'm leading my cash mini league by 100 but I'm 140 overall and would really like to get into the top 50.

I agree with you about how RVP has looked lately. He seems to be lashing at the ball these days and the class just isn't there in his finishing. Walcott and Arteta out should also effect his output as Ramsey will get more game time and he is the nut worst.

Chris Glover said...

CDI - I would do option 3. I can see a scenario where I'd consider taking a 4 point hit to avoid starting Evans and getting a DGW defender in, but you can avoid that by swapping BAE for Walker (who I like for the final three GWs). The difference between that and option 2 is a 4 point hit to get rid of Van Persie for Jelavic which to me would be crazy. I understand some suggest he is looking tired etc but to be honest I see that as fitting a narrative to the outcome rather than predictive behaviour.

Over the last 6 gameweeks zero players have more shots than Van Persie and only Rooney can touch his 13 on target. Perhaps he is snatching at chances, perhaps he is fatgued, but from my viewing (admittedly not every game every game) he is still getting into decent positions as evidenced by his shot data. Throw in set piece duties and you have a player who has 35 weeks of data to backup his excellence versus a player who has scored one home goal this season (in three appearances). In a vacuum I can see managers taking the upside Jelavic brings (and presumably a 4 point floor) but to pay 4 points for the priviledge is far too steep for me.

I like Ben Arfa a lot and would rank him as one of the better options for the week. However, unless you have a wildcard free I just don't see many players around worth burning 4 points for, unless of course your current starter is injured. Sessegnon and Sigurdsson have very nice fixtures themselves and you'd forecast their average points from the fixture to be in the 4 point range. True, they may end up with a 2 pointer, but that still means you need an assist and 180 minutes just to gain a net point.

I am obviously a lot more risk averse than most players and if you need to gain X points in 3 weeks the situation obviously changes, but in terms of pure points maximization, I don't see the need to roll the nice with 4 pointers very often.

I'd be more than happy going into this and future weeks with the current team, once you lose Walcott and BAE.

Chris Glover said...

Snowman - He was filtered from my rankings spreadsheet for some reason. He's added now. As the data shows though, the numbers doon't love him and it's a play based on fixture rather than concrete history. I like him this week but I'd prefer Cisse and I wouldn't transfer RvP for him. Rooney is closer as the GW38 fixture is also tough, but I'd personally prefer the class player over the better fixtures when it comes to the top end of the market.

Chris Glover said...

Roachmeister - this is one of the aforementioned scenarios where I think you have to pay for a transfer. Without making a move you are limiting yourself to three players who face a tough game (Evans) or might not play at all (Taylor and Hanley).

I like Everton and Spurs for this week and the remaining weeks so I'd go with Walker and Jagielka. Stoke are a hard team to predict as while I wouldn't be shocked if they give Arsenal trouble, I also wouldn't be surprised if they concede in both games this week. Their remaining games make them interesting but they're third on the list for me.

CDI said...

Thanks alot Chris. I went with option 3 as it made the most sense for my situation. I admit I got caught up in DGW fever but have calmed down alot and see no need to cut RVP when he's fit for a hit. GL tomorrow and for the rest of the season sir.

mike said...

Thoughts on swapping Rooney for RVP and Sessegnon for Pienaar before the deadline?

My current team:

Krul, Mignolet

Jaglelka, Simpson, Jose Enrique, Evans, Taylor

Valencia, Dempsey, Sigurdsson, Sessegnon, Bale (VC)

RVP, Cisse (C), Aguero

Roachmeister said...

Cheers Chris.

I'll give Walker and Jagielka a try. As a Wednesday fan I'll have to ignore the fact they're both former Sheffield United players!

Also apologies for the rubbish spelling in my first comment - that's what happens when you post without reading it back!

Gummi said...

@Chris and @CDI: I have to admit the reasoning makes sense so good luck with the choice of 3).

I'm perhaps clutching at straws, because I shipped out RvP for Jelavic. I'm currently at 30.000 in the world and had set a target for at least 10.000 so I'm playing as if I needed to catch up.

What also plays into picking Arsenal players is the need to finish third after Chelsea managed to get to the Champions League final. If they win, the team in fourth will not qualify which puts added pressure on Arsenal to cement their position at third.