Friday, August 17, 2012

Ten gameweek goal forecast

I meant to post this a few days back but I was having some troubles with Tableau (my skill level not the software, which is great). Anyway, here are the forecasts goals per game for the first ten gameweeks of the season based purely on prior year data.  The calculation uses a combination of a team's own defense and the strength of the opposition to generate the expected goals scored/conceded.

I haven't made any adjustments for transfers, manager changes etc as that is all too subjective and if I overlay my personal opinions on the relative strengths of the new arrivals then the data just becomes an extension of my own biases which are helpful to no one. If you believe that Tottenham will be much better with Vertonghen in defense then feel free to make the mental adjustments yourself.

For the promoted teams I use a factor to translate their Championship data into a Premier League expectation. This is explained in more detail here.

Note that for the GW1 double gameweeks, the goals scored table shows the combination of both games. On the defensive side we can only see the best fixture, with the details of both games to follow in the more detailed weekly preview. The GW3 fixture for Reading and Chelsea (or lack of it) should obviously appear as red in both tables but given the way Tableau assigns colours it is currently showing as green in the goals conceded table. Needless to say having no game is not a good thing, but I can't work an easy way around it at this stage.


stooshermadness said...

Interesting charts, Chris, thanks. I was especially intrigued to see the high rating for West Ham in terms of goals scored projected. Long time FF fan of Matty Taylor who had some very good years for Bolton (3 years at +120 FF points). He started 28-29 games last year (with 2G and 9A) and it looks like he was nailed on but for injury. At 5.0, if he starts, looks like an early season bargain but WH have added some attacking players and I wonder if Taylor is still favored on the left side of midfield. Your take ?

I was also a bit surprised to see how low Arsenal rated on the goals conceded chart for a team that had 13 CS last year. I am thinking that their slow start last year (8 conceded to MUN) impacts this rating and am looking at Vermaelen (with his attacking upside in mind too). Your take ?

DB said...

As always, your analysis is a welcome supplement to (or rather a replacement for!) much of the FPL banter found throughout the web...however, I'm increasingly intrigued by your stats-driven viewpoint, so I was encouraged to see this recent Guardian article, which you've probably read ( as I can only imagine it will provide additional fuel for your numerical fires.

Great job on the site, keep up the fantastic work. Something tells me you'll be working as an EPL performance analyst sooner rather than later.

(As for you, Stooshermadness...I will dethrone you in our mini-league this year!)

Gummi said...

Thanks for the numbers Chris. It's a refreshing change to the punditry (of which I'm guilty).

@DB: I hadn't seen the Guardian article. Thanks for the link. I'll be crunching some numbers soon.

@stooshermadness: Why not just go for Mark Noble, who is on penalties?

Anonymous said...

Chris, if you ever have questions about Tableau again, I'd be happy to help you out. Just email lwilliams at tableausoftware dot com. -Lori