Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Goalkeeper Rotation Data

Disappointed with another pair of socks? Grandma got you another gift card for the Body Shop? Well, unwrap the below - a fully updated guide to the best goalkeeper/defender combos, starting from GW21 - when the transfer window opens. Given that the same rotation logic can be applied to defenders as 'keepers I have included teams who offer budget options anywhere in the back five (e.g. Dawson at Spurs) even if their 'keeper would be excluded from a true budget rotation strategy.


For reference, using this same logic, playing Joe Hart every week is going to net you the lowest average goals per game forecast, with a number of budget sidekicks giving you a 0.85 average. In my opinion I find little data to backup paying the 2.0m premium for those slightly improved forecast numbers though and thus I'm happy to stick with a rotation strategy for the second half of the year.

For reference, Arsenal just miss out on the sub-5.0m bracket, with their cheapest option being the excellently priced Sagna. Any Arsenal combo comes in the 0.77-1.01 range and if you believe in the model at all, you will want to lock in at least one Gunner in your back five (Mertesacker would also be excellent value at 5.3m).

The other most obvious pick (on data alone) is Michael Dawson, with Spurs dominating the above table with green scores across the board. The issue, of course, is whether or not you believe his place in the first eleven is secure. While I wouldn't make a huge bet that it is, for the cost of a transfer and 4.5m I'd be willing to bet he gets his share of games in the coming weeks and months.

3 comments:

stooshermadness said...

Chris - when you speak of 'rotation' here, are you talking about rotating based on the best fixture either of the 2 players from those teams might have in any given week or does home/away figure in here ? I tend to be fairly religious in wanting to rotate home/away (my GK are Jaaskelainen/Begovic who rotate H/A in harmony). As another example, I had Figuroa(Wigan) in combination with Garrido(Norwich) for a long period as well, until Wigan's defender injury crisis causedf me to drop Figuroa; I have a midfield rotation between Ramirez/Taraabt, H/A too. Are there any good H/A combinations here ? Dawson/Sagna is an obvious one, any others jump out at you in your table ?

Watzco Jason said...

I am still very much pissed about the finals... Stupid calls made by a stupid coach! Btw you can check out this site http://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/ its got a nice podcast, so you can listen to the news on the go.

Watzco Jason said...

I am still very much pissed about the finals... Stupid calls made by a stupid coach! Btw you can check out this site http://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/ its got a nice podcast, so you can listen to the news on the go.