Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Gameweek 22 Preview Data

Clean Sheet Rankings

Attacking Rankings
Individual Rankings
On a recent FanGraphs podcast, guest Dan Szymborski spoke briefly about the difference between projections and predictions. Szymborski is the creator of the ZiPS baseball projection system which uses a combination of historic data and minor league stats to project future production. The key point here for us is that Szymborski notes that he is keen to avoid having a computer model do things that a computer isn't very good at, such as judging whether a niggly knee injury will keep a player out or whether a manager gave a hint in his latest press conference that someone might be rotated. He therefore distinguishes between projections - which are computer generated and focus on factors we can quantify - and predictions which use those projections along with other factors that are best left to the human mind to factor.

Given a few comments I have seen where the below data has been referenced elsewhere, I thought it important to underline the fact that these are very much projections and do not include reference to rotation risk or minor injuries. Where a player is suspended or ruled out I try and exclude them from the listing, but I am generally leaving the impact of more subtle decisions to the reader.

You may also note the absence of players like Javier Hernandez or Daniel Sturridge who look at least likely to feature this week for their respective teams. The reason is that their sample size is extremely small and thus, for example, Sturridge would be the number one non-double gameweek player this week, which just doesn't feel right based on what we know. If people feel it would be useful to include this data, I could potentially add a filter that could be turned on and off, so if you'd like to see that, please post a comment below.


12 comments:

Luxian Gan said...

Where'd Bale go?

Chris Glover said...

Still listed as suspended on my spreadsheet. Thanks. Updated now

Shreyansh Jain said...

Any comments on my team for the upcoming week..

Begovic (sub: federici)

Shaw--Martin R--mariappa (subs: zableta-demel)

michu-fellaini-walcott-bale-mata(c)

rvp--Ba
(sub: Pogrebnyak)

Ive played my wildcard this week so would like to put up a solid team :)

cr4zym4n said...

Perhaps maybe not even a filter, but an asterisk designating a player as having a small sample size.

- Dave

threesticks said...

Was hoping this would help who to bench (Walcott/Michu). Good stuff as always Chris

Chris Glover said...

Shreyansh - the team looks good paper, and for what it's worth, very similar to mine in the front eight (I think I will ultimately end up with Fellaini, Walcott, Mata, RvP and Ba for this week).

My only concern would be your back line which features a couple of defenses the model doesn't really like at all (NOR, QPR and SOU) as well as a couple of players - Martin and Demel - who have at least a couple of questions regarding their playing time (though Martin seems to be fairly settled right now).

It's great grabbing as many elite options as possible but I might be inclined to sacrifice one of your elite mids (given the DGW's Michu or Bale make most sense) for someone like Nolan (also on a DGW) and thus free up just enough cash which can go along way on your back line to grab players like Ben Davies, or take a risk than someone like Andre Wisdom or Michael Dawson can lock in regular playing time and offer a cheap way to access very good defenses. If you're going to take risks at the back, I'd much prefer it to be with those kind of players who offer must higher upside that the SOU/QPR types. You could of course downgrade Zabaleta to someone like Sagna, which would also free up some cash to strengthen elsewhere, though I agree that Zab looks like very solid value right now.

Chris Glover said...

cr4zym4n - My only hesitation with that, is that if I include all players, the top 10 might be basically all 'asterisked' players which might put some users off. Seeing a list of 'top' players featuring Kenwyne Jones and Romelu Lukaku might be an issue.

I think I will add a check box filter for future weeks so all players can be included or excluded with a single click.

Chris Glover said...

Threesticks - Sorry the model didn't help with that one, it seems to like them both almost exactly the same. One thing worth noting is that the model is likely undervaluing Walcott if he plays up front, though on the other hand it has undervalued Michu all year so perhaps it's still a push. Walcott probably has higher upside as EVE have only conceded more than once a couple of times (and generally to better teams that SWA) but I would understand if Michu's proven consistency is appealing. In these situations I tend to favour the upside though

CDI said...

Hey Chris Can I get your Input on my potential W/C team please?:

Jaaskelainen, Begovic

Demel, Harte, Azpilicueta, Gibbs, Davies

Walcott, Mata, Bale, Fellaini, Michu

RVP, Lambert, Ba

I'm not 100% on Demels mins but with O'Brien out he should be assured starts. I'll downgrade Lamber soon enough to allow me to upgrade Ba to Suarez if thats the play to make.

Shreyansh Jain said...

@Chris: Thanks!I put in Ben davies for martin R as you said..
Are you sure Dawson and Wisdom will get any playing time? If yes, then I will try to get them too. And is there any other way to bring in Suarez once his run of terrible fixtures is over? (selling pab Zab maybe?)

Eraser said...

I want Lukaku in the model! I want any excuse to get him

Ton the Don said...

Chris can you do a feature on defenders?