Saturday, November 1, 2014

Adopt a Team: Liverpool and Newcastle stats

Liverpool

These pages lack the kind of influence that might be able to convince the masses1, but I hope at least one reader with affection for Liverpool might see the above chart and at least take their finger off the panic button, even if they're not willing to put the emergency cover back on. Yes, Luis Suarez has left. And you're right Daniel Sturridge is injured. You can no longer see a movie for a nickel and kids don't have respect for older generations anymore. We get it, all is lost. Except when it isn't. We see above that Liverpool have generated better-than-average shots inside the box in every game while their defense has been solid with five such performances of their own. The conversion of goals per shot on target probably cannot simply be regressed back to league average without other considerations taken into account (type of shot, for one), but it's also reasonable to suggest that it's unlikely Liverpool have gone from a team that converts 40% of their SoT into goals to just 29% in one season, even if they did lose their best player.2 An increased slice of luck and some better finishing from those tasked with replacing Suarez plus the return of Sturridge at the end of the month will likely help this team get back on track, even if that isn't to the level the overachieved to attain last season.

Player focus

Newcastle


1. By masses I mean the kind of group that might struggle to fill a single taxi 2. Suarez's G/SoT rate was actually below his team's average at 38% so while his quality will clearly help his teammates, it's too simplistic to suggest him leaving is the sole reason for this decline

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Unknown said...

Hi Chris , could you please add dimaria to the player forecast section . thanks , keep up the good work !

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