Saturday, August 22, 2015

New season, new plan, familiar analysis

He we are. I'm back either much sooner or much later than planned but nevertheless ready to get back into the proverbial muddy waters of fantasy football projection and analysis. The reasons are two fold. First, despite the fact that the blog can sometimes be a chore, I miss the way it keeps me involved in the game, especially being over here in Canada (as Jermaine Defoe will attest, MLS just doesn't fill the void). Second, if the blog has ever contributed any value to anyone I think it's in the earlier stages of the season when we collectively overreact to very little and make wholesale changes to fix teams that aren't broken.

I'm not sure if anyone is even still reading at this stage, but if you are, the plan for the year is to try and have less of a plan. The pressure to crank out updated rankings and stats every week plus additional content for this and other sites can be too much for one person, so the plan is to stay as up to date as I can but focus on delivering the important pieces of info at important times, even if that means skipping a week now and then.

First up will be a familiar "fanning the flames" style piece, simply based on how players have scored to date versus what we'd expect based on their underlying stats. The longer term team and player projections will arrive a few weeks later once we have a bit more data for this year and I've had a chance to re-examine the projection model and better incorporate the key statistical drivers that lead to goals.

So to anyone reading this, thanks for giving the blog another go and I hope I can start rewarding that faith very soon.

12 comments:

Barry d said...

Lol@ppl not understanding sample size. 2 weeks ffs, thanks Chris btw <3

The Mad Hatter said...

Yes Chris! So glad you're back!

gulanfer said...

yes. love this blog and it's not just the analysis, I've also found I do my best "fantasy thinking" here

Jason said...

Great to see you back Chris, always like to read your take on what's happening with the game.

For the regular stats, your early articles from a few seasons ago really help me get the most out of a subscription to the type of sites you refer to in this post.

Do you contribute to any of these?

2ndMan said...

Great to see you back, looking forward to fanning the flames, especially given everyone and their mother now wants Wilson in their team!

RIBS said...

One of my earliest Fpl memories is perusing your posts on a Friday night before I pick my team. First blog I found to do so.. Looking forward to your usual top class analysis.

niloc said...

glad to have you back!

Neil said...

Good to see you back. My team is a mess without you.

Peter Foster said...

Welcome back Chris! Looking forward to reading your views again

Andy said...

+1 for glad to have you back.

pitt_AO said...

Yaaay, welcome back Chris, I'm so excited! I like the sound of having less of a rigid plan - if you feel obliged to do something at a particular time even when you're not in the mood it can quickly become a chore.

I love your statistical model and the way you interpret the data, but honestly my favourite thing about your blog is just when you add your own thoughts and opinions to the data. You act as the voice of reason that helps to confirm what I was already thinking or convinces me not to make silly knee-jerk transfers.

Farhan Ahemed said...

Hi Chris , really appreciate your in-depth analysis. really helped me climb up the leagues and the halfway point last year i managed to get up to 15th overall eventually ending up around 800th. no doubt my best ranking ever. this year im having an average start , so im really hoping any input from your articles can help me pick up some really good differentials. picking up di maria and tadic at the right time last year made a huge difference . cheers !