Saturday, September 26, 2015

Players' share of team totals

It wasn't really my intention to roll out pieces of the model in various stages but I've been a bit slower than I hoped in finalising this year's version so wanted to at least present the different pieces as they're available. We first looked at the team +/- which gives an indication of how a team might perform in future weeks beyond a simply shots/game type metric which fails to adjust for strength of schedule. Next up is to look at the players' share of their team totals, which will help turn the forecast team data into something we can use for individuals.

This isn't a complex calculation, but a couple of points are worth noting:
  1. The calculation excludes any games the player misses and only uses team data from games they appear in. It isn't, therefore, the same as simply looking at player's shots to date for the season divided by his team's total. 
  2. I do not make an adjustment for minutes played, so players who make a lot of substitute appearances will suffer a clouded picture. If, for example, a player comes on for 10 minutes and registers his team's only shot inside the box but the team had four before he came on, his percentage for the day will be registered as 20% even though in reality it should be 100%. This is an unfortunate drawback of relying on aggregated data which doesn't include sufficient data tags to identify when individual events happened.
With those caveats in mind, here is a quick visualisation of player's share of team totals to date. 

12 comments:

Penny Parker said...

Thanks for this Chris. Good analysis.

erlando said...

Great idea. Suggestion: use bars instead of lines. It's hard to see the individual values when the difference between player x-1, x, and x+1 is close to linear.

Will O'Shea said...

I really like the lines personally!

There is sign of Martial. His stats must be really bad.
Great analysis as usual.

Will O'Shea said...

The above comment should read: there is no sign of Martial.

pitt_AO said...

Very useful as ever Chris. As mentioned above there are a few newer players missing - as well as Martial I noticed no Sako for Crystal Palace, Shaqiri for Stoke and De Bruyne for City.

In terms of representation I prefer the one you used last season where each player had a different sized square/rectangle based on their share of xA/xG.

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Fauzi D.M. said...

Great idea..easy to understand & compare

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Abhijith Pandey said...

Good information in the article.

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Info in the article is very useful

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yolanda said...

Really you blog have very interesting and very valuable information about the Fantasy.
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