Thursday, August 10, 2017

Player Forecast: First Draft

With the new season upon us I wanted to get out some quick and dirty forecasts for the first few weeks of the year. The forecast data is almost entirely based on prior year data so I have not taken into account players changing teams (Lukaku, Walker) or those with new opportunities and teammates. By definition, a lack of historic data means that the new arrivals (Morata, Lacazette) are also missing for now, but will be added as soon as we have a small amount of data to go on. The defensive data looks a bit wacky for now so I would base my defensive decisions more on the team projections for now.

I will also update and share some workings around how the model is going to work this year as I try to improve on the decent, but far from perfect version from a couple of seasons back.

It's great to be back and I thank everyone reading this for giving the blog another chance. Please share your thoughts in the comments or on Twitter and I will make changes in the coming weeks.

Good luck for gameweek one!

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