Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Elite forwards: a response to City's past week

Over an eight day period last week, Man City thumped their three opponents by a combined score of 15-0, with Liverpool, Feyenoord and Watford unable to contend with Guardiola's men. It goes without saying that City were extremely impressive in these games and fantasy football managers are obviously taking note with Aguero and Jesus shooting to the top of many managers' transfer target lists (at the time of writing some 440,000 managers had already brought in Aguero and another 90,000 have targeted Jesus). The point of this post is not to suggest that these transfers are incorrect - indeed I might follow suit myself - but I did want to run over a few facts to maybe turn the temperature down on the need to make these moves right now.

The chart below shows the expected points each of the listed elite forwards have registered through the first 5 gameweeks. You can see Aguero's terrific GW5 effort eclipsing his rivals this past week but you will also note that Kane has three gameweeks with an expected points total close or above Aguero's game against Watford. Now, it should be noted here that the expected points number I am using is not as complex as some models, and indeed is a simplified version of my own, but it does a good enough job highlighting that Kane and Lukaku have been wracking up very solid shot and created chance numbers on week-on-week and so one very good game from Aguero, and to a lesser extent Jesus, does not need to completely change your transfer plans.

Note: Firmino's sky high xP in GW1 is due to his penalty which is scored in the model as essentially 4 guaranteed points on top of his other goal and assist potential.

The model forecast still likes Kane quite a bit more than any other forward using the blended or prior year season conversion rates, which ranks Lukaku just ahead of Jesus and Aguero in terms of projected goals. Aguero tops all his rivals when it comes to assist threat which is a useful tool to have and would push him sufficiently far ahead of Jesus as to justify the extra million or so pounds.

To me, there remains a relatively clear hierarchy of Kane at the top, Lukaku and Aguero in a near tie for second and then Jesus, Morata and to an extent Firmino following in the lower tier. Therefore the switch from Lukaku to Aguero makes good sense but is not suddenly a "must do" transaction if there are other areas of the team you need to address.

No comments: