Saturday, September 2, 2017

Expected goals, assists and points

The visualization below plots the expected fantasy points arising from expected goals versus those arising from expected assists. The idea here is that this is a quick snapshot of how a player has performed to date and where their points are coming from. It should be noted that xG and xA numbers used to generate the xP are based on shot, created chance and possession date for the 2017-18 season only but the conversion rates to convert those raw events into goals are regressed using team and league rates for both the current and prior seasons. I hope this eliminates some noise from the small sample sizes of the early season but it's still worth noting that this is a snapshot based on three games so should act as a data point for your transfer assessments but not an all encompassing answer.

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