Friday, September 8, 2017

Revised player forecast

One of the key complications with player forecasting - or indeed I imagine any forecasting - is deciding which data set to use. When it comes to fantasy football, we obviously want to include as much recent data as possible but the issue is when we can exclusively rely on this season's data and when we need to look to the past seasons for guidance. I am generally quite happy to solely rely on this season's raw event data such as shots or created chances fairly early on as they tend to occur with relative frequency and thus stabilise in a short time frame. How these events get converted into goals can fluctuate a lot more though, as the key driver there - goals - happen much less frequently. With this mind, the revised player projection table below allows you to choose how you are converting the raw chances into goals and assists:

  • Past season - uses the benefit of having a 38 game sample to see how different teams convert chances into goals. The negative, of course, is that teams have changed since the previous season, both in terms of personnel and with the arrival of three new promoted teams (who use a historical average for promoted sides in this forecast);
  • Current season - the most up-to-date conversion rates will help to spot players and teams who have genuinely improved since last season but will be subject to a much greater sample size risk so will kick out some unusual results;
  • Blended - this rate uses a combination of historic and current data, increasingly weighted towards the latter as the season progresses.
A couple of highlights below that jump out as of gameweek 4:
  • I generally dislike the term "must own" as there are thousands of ways to build a successful team but there is no denying that Kane's data so far this season is simply incredible. The fact that his ownership percentage has fallen to 26% - including a 0.1m price reduction - represents a great opportunity and it's hard to see how one could select a wildcard team now without the Spurs man.
  • Mahrez is an interesting case of low ownership with just 5% of managers fancying the former Champion. Perhaps this was due to the presumption he would leave Leicester during the transfer window, but now that is closed, a lot more attention needs to be directed his way. Using the prior season conversion rate cuts his xG significantly which reflects the fact that Leicester have been so clinical (lucky?) this term, but nevertheless he remains a legitimate elite midfielder who at 8.5m isn't too badly priced.
  • The xA listing offers more moderately priced options than the xG list, which makes me wonder if it will be better to focus resources on elite forwards and midfielders who can score goals, knowing that you can find low-risk-high-reward midfielder picks who contribute assists with cheaper options like Brady, Carroll or Loftus-Cheek.
  • With Spurs offering about as good defensive prospects as any team, the fact that Ben Davies ranks so highly in xA while also being cheaper than most of his teammates makes him a very promising prospect.

Select tabs below for goal and assist forecasts for the next 6 and 12 gameweeks:

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